Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, Feb. 27

The two top teams in the odds to win the NBA Finals this season are set to face off on Friday night in Oklahoma City.

The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who are down Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell host the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic. On the bright side for OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is set to return from an abdominal strain that has sidelined him since before the All-Star break.

Both he and Chet Holmgren are off the Thunder injury report for Friday’s showdown.

Denver is coming off a huge win at home over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday, but it remains without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson while Jamal Murray is questionable for this matchup.

Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the top-two candidates for the league's MVP award once again this season, and this should be an epic showdown in primetime on national television. So, why don’t we bet on it?

Denver is well out of the No. 1 seed in the West, but it needs every win it can get if it wants to land a top-three seed in this season.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop target and my prediction for this Western Conference showdown on Friday night.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets +8.5 (-110)
Thunder -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Nuggets: +245
Thunder: -300

Total

230.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Friday, Feb. 27
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Nuggets record: 37-22
Thunder record: 45-15

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Tamar Bates – out
Aaron Gordon – out
Peyton Watson – out
Curtis Jones – out
Spencer Jones – questionable
Jalen Pickett – questionable
Jamal Murray – questionable
Julian Strawther – probable

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber – out
Ajay Mitchell – out
Jalen Williams – out
Branden Carlson – out

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Note: These player prop picks were made before odds were released and are based on past player performance.

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Jamal Murray UNDER Points

An All-Star for the first time this season, Murray is averaging 25.1 points. 4.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game this season while shooting 48.3 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from 3.

However, he was shut down in his last matchup against the Thunder, shooting just 4-for-16 from the field and finishing with 12 points. That has been a common theme for Murray, who has finished with less than 20 points in seven of his last eight regular-season games against OKC.

Even with some players out for the Thunder tonight, they still have elite defenders like Lu Dort and Cason Wallace that should spend most of the game on the All-Star guard.

Opposing point guards are averaging an NBA-low 22.79 points per game against OKC this season, so I don’t mind fading Murray on the road in this matchup.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

The return of SGA is a massive boost for the Thunder, who are 24-6 at home this season and have put together some nice wins without the reigning league MVP.

I’m worried about Denver’s ability to defend the star guard, as two of the options to guard him – Watson and Gordon – are out of this matchup. Christian Braun will draw the initial assignment on Friday, but Denver doesn’t have a ton of great options after him.

The Nuggets, after all, are just 20th in the league in defensive rating this season, and I’m not putting too much stock into their performance against Boston on Wednesday, as the C’s were playing the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC is 15-15 against the spread at home this season, posting an average scoring margin of +12.5 points per game. It also beat the Nuggets by 10 in Denver back on Feb. 1 with Watson in the lineup (Gordon did not play).

I think OKC is in a great spot to win on Friday in SGA’s return.

Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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