Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 6

Do Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have what it takes to force a Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs?

Denver took a step in the right direction after falling behind 3-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, winning Game 5 at home behind a triple-double from Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are now favored by 5.5 points in Game 6, as the Wolves remain without Anthony Edwards (knee) after he was injured in Game 4.

Minnesota may not have enough firepower to win this series, as Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) are both done for this series. While Edwards could return later on in the playoffs, the Wolves need to win one more game without him to give him a chance to come back.

In NBA history, there have only been 13 times where a team erased a 3-1 series deficit (4.4 percent of the time). The last team to do it? The 2020 Denver Nuggets did it twice before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

So, Jokic and Jamal Murray have been here before, and they may have to carry a banged up Denver squad that has been without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop to target and my prediction for Game 6 on Thursday night.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets -5.5 (-115)
Timberwolves +5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Nuggets: -225
Timberwolves: +185

Total

224.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 30
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Series: Minnesota leads 3-2

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Aaron Gordon -- questionable
Peyton Watson -- out

Timberwolves Injury Report

Donte DiVincenzo -- out
Anthony Edwards -- out
Bones Hyland -- questionable

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Naz Reid OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-142)

Minnesota big man Naz Reid rolled his ankle in Game 5, but he still finished with eight rebounds in the double-digit loss to Denver.

Reid is going to play a bigger role the rest of this series with Anthony Edwards out, as the Wolves need all the offense they can get against this Denver team.

More minutes is a positive sign for Reid’s impact on the glass, especially since he averaged 6.2 rebounds per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, Reid has three, nine, six, nine and eight boards in five games.

He’s picked up at least eight boards in every game in this series where he’s played over 20 minutes. I’m buying him at this line in Game 6.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

The Timberwolves are facing an uphill battle – despite being up in this series – with Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo out.

Still, there is a case to be made for the Wolves to cover this number in Game 6, especially since they hung around in the first half of Game 5. The defense for the Timberwolves has been the difference in this series, ranking sixth in defensive rating amongst playoff teams while the Nuggets are 12th in effective field goal percentage.

Denver was able to get big games from both Spencer Jones and Cameron Johnson in Game 5, but will that carry over on the road? The supporting cast for the Nuggets is extremely suspect with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson injured, and the Timberwolves are 4-4 against the spread when set as home dogs this season.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Wolves hang around in this game, especially since they won two games outright at home already in this series – including Game 4 with Edwards missing the entire second half.

Pick: Timberwolves +5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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