Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 17

The Warriors are favored at home against Denver on Monday.

The Warriors are 14-1 when Jimmy Butler plays this season. / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Arguably the game of the night in the NBA on Monday night is between the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors, two teams in the mix for a top spot in the Western Conference.

But how did Golden State get here? Well, the Warriors have won 14 of their last 16 games, going 14-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup since the trade deadline. On top of that, Golden State has won seven games in a row to pull within 3.5 games of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

Remember when it looked like this team could end up missing the play-in tournament?

The Butler addition has been massive for Steph Curry (questionable tonight) and company, and oddsmakers have the Warriors favored at home in this matchup.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets could pose a threat to Golden State’s winning streak, as the Warriors don’t have anyone on the inside that can really match up with Jokic. Denver is the No. 3 seed in the West, as it was leapfrogged by the Houston Rockets, who have won six games in a row themselves. 

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this nationally televised game on Monday. 

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +4.5 (-108)
• Warriors -4.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +154
• Warriors: -185

Total

• 236.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 17
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Nuggets record: 43-25
• Warriors record: 39-28

Nuggets vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Nikola Jokic – questionable
• Aaron Gordon – questionable
• Jamal Murray – questionable
• Trey Alexander – out
• Christian Braun – probable
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Julian Strawther – out

Warriors Injury Report

• Steph Curry – questionable
• Gary Payton II – available
• Quinten Post – questionable
• Brandin Podziemski – out

Nuggets vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-110)

This prop is pretty simple, as Jokic is averaging 12.8 rebounds per game and is now facing a Golden State team that lacks any real size in the frontcourt outside of rookie Quinten Post, who is questionable for this game.

Jokic has picked up 13 or more rebounds in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 14.0 boards per game during that stretch. I’d expect him to play heavy minutes on Monday, which should help him clear this prop against a Warriors team that is just 17th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game. 

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-115)

Since the Butler trade, Curry has been on another level, averaging 29.1 points per game across 17 matchups while shooting 47.6 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from beyond the arc. On top of that, Curry is attempting a whopping 19.3 shots and 12.4 3-pointers per game.

He should be able to get loose against a Denver team that ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 matchups. Curry had 24 points, 11 assists and seven boards in a loss to Denver earlier this season. 

Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

I can’t fade the Warriors here – especially at home – with the Nuggets potentially down one of their best players (Murray, Gordon and Jokic are all questionable) on Monday.

Sure, Curry is also questionable, but the odds for this game suggest that the two-time league MVP will play, and Golden State has actually gone 6-3 straight up in the nine games that he’s missed this season.

My biggest concern for Denver is its play against teams over .500 this season. The Nuggets are just 14-17 in those games, although they are 7-5 against the spread as road underdogs. 

Golden State, on the other hand, is 12-12-1 against the spread as a home favorite. However, no team in the NBA has a better net rating than the Warriors over their last 10 games, and I am extremely concerned about the Denver defense (27th over its last 10) when it comes to slowing down the Curry-Butler tandem.

I’ll keep betting on Golden State until it shows a sign of weakness with Butler in the lineup. 

Pick: Warriors -4.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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