Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Feb. 22

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are seven games out of first place in the Western Conference, but they find themselves as road favorites on Sunday against the No. 8-seeded Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are just 6-11 this season when Steph Curry (knee) doesn’t play, as the two-time league MVP is set to miss the rest of this month with what the team is calling “runner’s knee.”

That’s a massive blow for Golden State, which is coming off a loss to Boston and is without Jimmy Butler (torn ACL) for the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, Denver won’t have Aaron Gordon in this matchup and guard Jamal Murray is listed as questionable. So, neither team is at full strength in this afternoon matchup on ABC.

Still, oddsmakers expect Denver to win this game, and it’s coming off a 157-point showing in a blowout win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday.

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference clash on Sunday afternoon.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets -6.5 (-105)
Warriors +6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Nuggets: -245
Warriors: +200

Total

229.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Nuggets vs. Warriors How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Feb. 22
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Nuggets record: 36-21
Warriors record: 29-27

Nuggets vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Jamal Murray – questionable
Tamar Bates – out
Aaron Gordon – out
Jalen Pickett – out
Peyton Watson – out

Warriors Injury Report

Steph Curry – out
Jimmy Butler – out
Seth Curry – out
Nate Williams – out
Malevy Leons – out
LJ Cryer – out
Kristaps Porzingis – probable

Nuggets vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Jamal Murray OVER 23.5 Points (-116)

Even though Murray appears to be a little banged up, I think this prop is set way too low for him on Sunday afternoon.

The Nuggets star is averaging over 25 points per game this season, and now he takes on a Golden State team that is allowing the fourth-most points to opposing point guards this season (26.45). The Warriors are ninth in the league in defensive rating, but Murray hung 23 points on them in a matchup earlier this season.

The star guard has been ultra-efficient in the 2025-26 season, and he should have a strong game for the league's No. 1 offense.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

The Warriors have dropped back-to-back games and simply have not been good enough with Curry out of the lineup.

Golden State has won just six of the 17 games that he’s missed, averaging 104.4 points per game in those matchups.

That’s not going to cut it against a Denver team that has thrived on the road this season, going 21-10 straight up while posting a 12-9 against the spread record as a road favorite. The Nuggets have also posted an average scoring margin of +9.0 points when favored on the road.

The Denver offense – No. 1 in the league in offensive rating – is going to be too much for the Warriors to keep up with. The Nuggets average 120.9 points per game, the most in the NBA, while Golden State has scored over 120 points in just one game that Curry has missed this season.

I’m buying Denver to win this game by a wide margin on Sunday.

Pick: Nuggets -6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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