Odds Say Kirk Cousins Will Start for Raiders Over Fernando Mendoza

Now that the NFL Draft is in the rear view mirror, it's time to look ahead to the 2026 season.

The Las Vegas Raiders are going to be one of the more fascinating teams to watch this season. They're in the midst of a rebuild, and one of their biggest first steps in returning to being a playoff-caliber team is finding a franchise quarterback. The Geno Smith experience didn't work out for them last year, so they're looking in a different direction in 2026.

The Raiders signed former Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins and then used the No. 1 overall pick on the Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza. That means the Raiders are going to have a training camp battle to find out who will be the team's starting quarterback in Week 1.

According to the betting market, Kirk Cousins has the inside track. Let's take a look.

Who Will be Raiders Starting Quarterback?

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Kirk Cousins -200
Fernando Mendoza +168
Any Other QB +2000

Cousins is currently set as the -200 favorite to be the starting quarterback for the Raiders, with an implied probability of 66.67%.

He finds himself in a similar situation to the one he was in with the Falcons. He signed with Atlanta in 2024, then one month later the Falcons used a top 10 pick on Washington quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. Cousins would go on to start the season for the Falcons, playing in 14 games before being sidelined for the rookie.

The difference this time around is that Cousins wasn't blindsided. He knew the Raiders were likely to draft Mendoza with the first overall pick, whereas he was blindsided in Atlanta after being told he would be their quarterback of the future.

With that being said, it's still likely that Cousins will get a chance to start for the Raiders at the start of the season. He signed a five-year contract worth up to $172 million, which isn't the type of money you pay a player you expect to only serve in a mentor role.

Unless Mendoza plays so well in training camp and preseason that he gives the Raiders no choice but to start him Week 1, expect Cousins to be the opening day starter.

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