Odds to Win the AFC Entering NFL Playoffs (Is It Finally the Bills' Year?)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 6, 2026

The Bills are listed at +500 to win the AFC Championship ahead of Wild Card Weekend. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After a roller coaster of an NFL regular season, it's time to look ahead to the playoffs, which are set to begin with Wild Card Weekend in a few days.

The AFC Playoffs look completely different this time around. The Kansas City Chiefs played in the AFC Championship in seven straight years, but now Patrick Mahomes and Co. are sidelined, failing to make the playoffs. That, paired with the Cincinnati Bengals also missing the playoffs, means we'll see someone other than the Chiefs or Bengals representing the AFC in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019. If the Patriots also fail to make it, we'll see a team that's not the Chiefs, Bengals, or Patriots make it to the big dance for the first time since 2016.

That makes this year's AFC Playoffs wide open, so let's take a look at the odds for each team to win the AFC Championship.

AFC Championship Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Broncos +230
• Patriots +430
• Texans +470
• Bills +500
• Jaguars +550
• Chargers +1200
• Steelers +1700

The Denver Broncos have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning they get a BYE in the first round and home-field advantage for the Divisional Round and, if they make it, in the Conference Championship Game. That could mean a lot, especially considering how much of a home-field advantage they have at Mile High Stadium.

Josh Allen and the Bills are set at +500 as they try to finally get over the hump and win the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in franchise history. Allen has led the Bills on multiple deep playoff runs, but now with Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow not competing in the postseason, Allen's path to the Super Bowl is as clear as ever.

The Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers are a step below the rest of the competition. At 12-1 and 17-1, respectively, they have significantly longer odds than the top five teams on the odds list. With that being said, crazier things have happened, and there's certainly a world where they get hot at the right time and make a Super Bowl push, especially with no truly elite team in the AFC this season.

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