Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds and Key Players for National Championship Game

Reed Wallach | Jan 15, 2025

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) throws a pass during the first half of the Cotton Bowl Classic College Football Playoff semifinal game against the Texas Longhorns at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 10, 2025. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first National Champion of the 12-team College Football Playoff will be crowned on Monday night when Ohio State and Notre Dame meet. 

The two teams have taken similar paths during the regular season, overcoming some shocking defeats to set up a rematch from last season's thriller in South Bend that Ohio State won on the final play of the game. However, the two teams look considerably different in the National Championship. 

The Buckeyes are paced by a veteran defensive line and a high-powered offense that has been firing on all cylinders throughout the postseason, resulting in three straight double-digit victories. 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has been able to withstand injuries across the roster to make it to the title game. The Fighting Irish have made timely defensive plays and used a rush-first offense to get past the likes of Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State. 

With one game left, what’s the best bet? 

Here’s how I see it. 

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ohio State: -8.5 (-105)
• Notre Dame: +8.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Ohio State: -355
• Notre Dame:  +285

Total: 45.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame How to Watch

• Date: Monday, January 20th
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Key Players to Watch

Ohio State

Will Howard: Howard wasn’t as devastating through the air as the first two games, but still navigated a ho-hum Ohio State offensive effort in the Cotton Bowl. He did toss an ill-advised interception, but the senior quarterback completed 72% of his passes for 289 yards with a touchdown pass and a key fourth-down conversion run. In the postseason, Howard has averaged more than 306 yards with six touchdown passes and two interceptions.

Notre Dame

Riley Leonard: Leonard continues to keep this Notre Dame offense on track. It was far from his best performance of the season, but Leonard made clutch play after clutch play in the Orange Bowl and was a force with his legs in short-yardage situations. Overall, Leonard erased two interceptions with a 54-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to finish the game with 223 yards through the air.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Ohio State continues to be priced as the best team in the country as we arrive at the National Championship Game, laying north of a touchdown against the Fighting Irish. 

Notre Dame continues to outperform oddsmakers expectations, winning back-to-back coin flips against Georgia and Penn State, but this is where the team finally meets its match. 

The Fighting Irish continue to be limited on offense, needing some late explosive playmaking to get ahead of Penn State, and will now be down left tackle Andrew Knapp, who suffered a high ankle sprain. Ironically, the team will go back to preseason starter Charles Jagusah, who missed the entire regular season with a torn pectoral muscle but was available for the Orange Bowl. Can he hold up against an elite Ohio State defensive line? 

The Penn State defensive line lost its leverage in the second half of the Orange Bowl as the team failed to pounce on an early lead. However, Ohio State grades out above the elite Nittany Lions rush defense, fifth in yards per carry allowed and EPA/Rush in the regular season. 

It all starts with the ground game for the Fighting Irish, and I don’t believe it will hold up against Ohio State, which has the top success rate overall in the country. I struggle to see Notre Dame moving the chains consistently and going on methodical scoring drives. 

Meanwhile, the ND defense will finally face a high-octane passing game. While the team shut down Indiana’s highly touted passing game, it’s clear that Ohio State has the highest ceiling in the nation. After facing a backup quarterback for Georgia and a Penn State passing game that didn’t register a completion to a wide receiver, the Buckeyes will be able to find answers down the field that can open up rushing lanes for the likes of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. 

Even though it looked clunky at times, Ohio State still registered more than six yards per play against Texas (66th percentile when compared to each game in 2023, per GameOnPaper) and averaged more than eight yards per dropback (79th percentile). 

The Buckeyes defense will keep a lid on this Notre Dame offense that remains limited. The group is outside the top 40 in EPA/Pass and if this team falls behind early, it’ll be tough sledding to get back in the game. 

Meanwhile, the Ohio State offense continues to stress the opposing defense with efficient play-calling and a bevy of different options around the field. 

The Buckeyes realize its ceiling and hoist the National Championship trophy on Monday night, likely in blowout fashion. 

PICK: Ohio State -8.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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