Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for SEC Championship Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 13, 2025

Mar 12, 2025; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard D.J. Wagner (21) dribbles the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Arkansas avoided a possible NCAA Tournament eliminating loss to South Carolina on Wednesday in the first round of the SEC Tournament, setting up a second round matchup against Ole Miss.

The Rebels won the first meeting back in January, but the Razorbacks have transformed their team since then and are enjoying far better play. Will it continue with a mild upset against the Rebels?

Instead of playing a side, we are eyeing the total for this second round matchup.

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Arkansas: +3.5 (-102)
• Ole Miss: -3.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Arkansas: +146
• Ole Miss: -178

Total: 144.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 13th
• Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Arkansas Record: 20-12
• Ole Miss Record: 21-10

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Best Player Prop Bets

Arkansas 

D.J. Wagner OVER 13.5 Points (+100)

Wagner is trending up, scoring at least 13 points in five of the last six games as his three-point shot continues to round into form, shooting over 39% from three-point range in that stretch. 

The Razorbacks' offense has been suspect all season, but Wagner finding his form is going to be huge to the team’s ability to pull a minor upset against the Rebels. 

Ole Miss’s defense will allow teams to shoot from the perimeter, bottom third in SEC play in three-point rate allowed, and I’ll take my chances on Wagner staying hot from deep. 

Ole Miss

Malik Dia UNDER 11.5 Points (-125)

The big man had a big effort against Arkansas in the first meeting, scoring 21 points in 28 minutes, but that was before the emergence of the Arkansas defense, which has been performing like a top 20 defense in the country since the beginning of February. 

This is right in the range for Dia, who is averaging 10 points per game this season, but I’m going to skew towards the under, given the state of the Hogs' defense. 

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Ole Miss should be able to keep a lid on this Arkansas offense that is incredibly reliant on running in transition. The Rebels are in the 18th percentile in transition denial rate, so a ton of pressure will come on the Razorbacks' ability to execute in the halfcourt, which has consistently been a problem for the team. 

In the halfcourt, the Rebels' ball pressure will likely lead to a poor outing for the Hogs' offense, which has struggled to protect the ball all season and is reliant on getting to the rim to generate its offense. However, the compact Ole Miss defense will force teams to shoot from the perimeter, which Arkansas checks in outside the top 200. 

On the other side of the floor, the Razorbacks' defense is stout and should have the ability to slow the Rebels' isolation-centric offense. 

With Ole Miss’s inability to generate second chances and last in SEC play in offensive rebounding rate, I like Arkansas to keep a lid on the Rebels' sound offense and for the game to finish under the total. 

PICK: UNDER 144.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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