Oregon vs. Indiana Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff Semifinals

Predicting the final score of the College Football Playoff semifinal matchup between the Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning shakes hands with Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Dante Moore and the Oregon Ducks are looking to get revenge on the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff after Indiana handed them their lone loss during the regular season. 

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers absolutely dominated Alabama in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals, winning 38-3 behind a three-touchdown day from Fernando Mendoza.

Meanwhile, the Ducks shut out the Big 12 champion Texas Tech Red Raiders and have won two games in the playoff ahead of this semifinal showdown. 

There’s a chance that the quarterbacks in this game will go No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2026 NFL Draft, so all eyes will be on this matchup with a trip to the final on the line. 

Can Mendoza and the Hoosiers remain undefeated? Or, will Moore and the Ducks learn from their loss earlier in the season and dethrone the best team in college football? 

Here’s a look at the latest odds, analysis, line movement and a final score prediction for this semifinal showdown. 

Oregon vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Oregon +3.5 (-112)
• Indiana -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Oregon: +154
• Indiana: -185

Total

• 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

This line has moved in favor of the Ducks as the week has gone on, as Indiana opened as a 4.5-point favorite.

These teams met back on Oct. 11, and the Ducks ended up losing that game by 10 points at home. So, oddsmakers clearly think they’ll put up a better fight than that in a neutral site game on Friday night. 

Indiana has yet to lose a game this season, and it enters this matchup with an impressive 9-5 record against the spread, including an easy cover against Alabama in the quarterfinals. 

Oregon vs. Indiana Final Score Prediction

Simply put, these are two of the best teams in the country with two of the best quarterbacks.

They rank No. 4 (Oregon) and No. 3 (Indiana) in net EPA/Play, and both teams are in the top 25 in the country in EPA/Play on offense and defense. 

So, who has the advantage on Friday night? 

If there’s one way to attack this Oregon defense, it’s on the ground, as the Ducks 63rd in the country in defensive success rate against the run and outside the top 30 in EPA/Rush. That’s not bad, but it could be a glaring issue against an Indiana offense that is sixth in the country in offensive success rate on running plays.

Mendoza and Moore both should be able to move their ball for their respective teams, but it was a pair of picks by Moore that doomed the Ducks in the first meeting between these teams.

Mendoza only threw for 215 yards, one score in one pick in that matchup, and we’ve seen Indiana play some low-scoring games (the Big Ten title game for example) against elite opponents. 

The odds have moved in favor of the Ducks, but the spread is still outside a field goal. I don’t mind getting the points in this game, as Oregon’s defense (eighth in EPA/Play) was an elite unit against Texas Tech in the quarterfinals.

I lean with Indiana to win, but I think this could be an instant classic that comes down to a final possession/field goal try. 

Final Score Prediction: Indiana 23, Oregon 20

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.