Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Playoff Semifinal

Iain MacMillan | Jan 5, 2026

Indiana and Oregon will face off for a berth in the college football National Championship. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks are set to face each other in a Big Ten rematch, but this time, a berth in the college football National Championship is on the line.

The two teams played in Eugene back on October 11, and the Hoosiers came away victorious by a final score of 30-20. Will we see a similar outcome on Friday? Let's take a look at what the oddsmakers think.

Oregon vs. Indiana Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Oregon +4.5 (-115)
• Indiana -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Oregon +160
• Indiana -194

Total

• OVER 46.5 (-115)
• UNDER 46.5 (-105)

Oregon vs. Indiana How to Watch

• Date: Friday, January 9
• Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Oregon Record: 13-1
• Indiana Record: 14-0

Oregon vs. Indiana Betting Trends

• Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
• The UNDER is 7-1 in Oregon's last eight games played on a Friday
• Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
• Indiana is 11-0 straight up in its last 11 games vs. Big Ten opponents

Oregon vs. Indiana Key Player to Watch

• Fernando Mendoza, QB - Indiana Hoosiers

Fernando Mendoza has already played himself to a Big Ten Championship and a Heisman Trophy. Now, he has a National Championship and being the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft within his sights. With that being said, he didn't exactly tear up the Oregon defense in the first game between these two teams. He completed 20-of-31 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He may need to improve on that number to ensure a berth in the National Championship.

Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

I've been very high on this Oregon team throughout the season. No one has really taken them as a legitimate national championship contender, but I think the Ducks are very much live as underdogs in this matchup. The Ducks are third in the country in adjusted net EPA per play, one spot above Indiana, which comes in at fourth.

Not only are they one of the best teams in the country overall, but the Ducks' defense is the one remaining unit that has a chance to shut down the Heisman Trophy winner. Oregon ranks eighth in opponent dropback EPA and ninth in opponent dropback success rate, allowing just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, which is the third-lowest mark in college football.

I think this game is going to come down to the wire. The Ducks may not end up winning, but I feel confident they'll give Hoosier-nation a scare. I'll take the points with Oregon.

Pick: Oregon +4.5 (-115) via FanDuel

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