Orioles vs. Mets Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Monday, Aug. 19 (Bet Mets at Home?)

The Baltimore Orioles are back in first place in the American League East, but they still have the same record as the New York Yankees through 125 contests.

Now, the O’s have to take on the other New York team – the New York Mets – who are coming off a loss in their series finale against the Miami Marlins, setting them a little behind in the NL wild card race.

Both teams have a lefty on the mound in this one, and they both happen to rank in the top five in the league in OPS against left-handed pitching.

Sounds like a recipe for some runs, but is a wager on the total the best bet to place in this game?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, probable pitchers and my prediction for Monday night’s interleague matchup.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Orioles vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

Orioles +1.5 (-192)
Mets -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline

Orioles: +110
Mets: -130

Total

8.5 (Over -122/Under +102)

Orioles vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Baltimore: Trevor Rogers (2-11, 4.89 ERA)
New York: David Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA)

Orioles vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 19
Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): MASN, SNY
Orioles record: 73-52
Mets record: 64-60

Orioles vs. Mets Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson: Orioles All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson is on fire. He smashed a fourth home run in five games on Sunday against the Boston Red Sox, pushing him to 33 homers on the season while slashing .288/.374/.562. Can he keep it going tonight?

New York Mets

David Peterson: On paper, Peterson is having a great season, posting a 3.04 ERA and leading the Mets to a 10-3 record in his outings. However, his advanced numbers are horrible, especially his expected ERA, which sits at 5.31. When will he come back to earth in 2024?

Orioles vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

This is an interesting matchup, as both starting pitchers have some serious questions surrounding them, and I broke down how I’m playing it in today’s edition of Rounding the Bases – SI Betting’s straight up picks for Major League Baseball’s action each day:

I don't love betting on David Peterson at any time, especially against a playoff team like Baltimore, but the Orioles are leaving me no choice by starting Trevor Rogers.

Let's start with the Peterson side of things, though.

The lefty has a 3.04 ERA on the season, which seems great, but his advanced numbers are awful. Peterson has a 5.31 expected ERA in 2024, and he ranks in the 12th percentile in hard hit percentage and expected batting average against.

Yet, the Mets are 10-3 in his outings this season. So, I'm going to trust him against Rogers, who hasn't turned things around since being acquired at the trade deadline from Miami.

In three starts with the O's, Rogers has a 7.53 ERA, allowing 20 hits and 12 earned runs in 14.1 innings of work. The Orioles are just 1-2 in those games, and Rogers has allowed at least five earned runs in two of those starts.

I'll take the Mets to pull out a win at home in this one.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-130)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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