Pacers vs. Cavs Opening Series Odds, Prediction and Preview (Cavs Heavily Favored to Advance)

Breaking down the series odds for the second-round matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers in the NBA playoffs.

The Cavs are favored to beat the Pacers in the second round of the playoffs. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers made quick work of the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs, but they have a much tougher second-round matchup against the Indiana Pacers and Tyrese Haliburton.

Haliburton sent the Pacers to the second round with a huge Game 5 against the Milwaukee Bucks, including the game-winning layup in overtime to complete a crazy comeback win. Indiana made the Eastern Conference Finals last season, and it looks poised to make another run in the 2024-25 season.

However, oddsmakers have set Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs as major favorites in this series after their dominant sweep over Miami – which included three wins by 20 or more points. Darius Garland (toe) missed two of those games, but the Cavs are hoping to have him back in the second round for Game 1 on Sunday.

During the regular season, Indiana actually beat the Cavs in three of the four meetings between these teams, so it’s not impossible to think that the Pacers can win this series. These are two of the best offenses in the NBA, as they finished their first-round matchups in the top-three in the NBA in offensive rating. 

Here’s a look at the series odds, exact outcome odds and my prediction for this second-round matchup. 

Pacers vs. Cavs Series Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pacers: +330
• Cavs: -425

Pacers vs. Cavs Series Correct Score Odds

• Cavs in 5: +285
• Cavs in 4: +370
• Cavs in 7: +380
• Cavs in 6: +450
• Pacers in 6: +800
• Pacers in 7: +1000
• Pacers in 5: +1800
• Pacers in 4: +2800

Pacers vs. Cavs Series Preview

Both of these teams have plenty of playoff experience, but Cleveland has been the more dominant team from the start of the season. Here’s a quick look at how they rank in some key categories: 

Net Rating

• Pacers: +2.1 (13th)
• Cavs: +9.2 (3rd)

Offensive Rating

• Pacers: 115.4 (9th)
• Cavs: 121.0 (1st)

Defensive Rating

• Pacers: 113.3 (14th)
• Cavs: 111.8 (8th)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

• Pacers: 56.2% (4th)
• Cavs: 57.8% (1st)

Cleveland also has the best against the spread record in the NBA on the road this season, something that could come in handy in this matchup from a betting perspective.

On the court, Indiana actually stepped up in a big way on defense after the All-Star break, ranking in the top-10 in the league in defensive rating during that stretch. If that keeps up in this series, the Pacers are going to be a much tougher out than people expect. Indiana also played 11 players in the first round, showcasing that it has the depth to throw fresh bodies at the Cavs all night.

The problem?

Cleveland’s top group is a little more talented than the Pacers. Not only did the Cavs have three All-Stars this season, but they have six players averaging double figures and multiple players that were Sixth Man of the Year candidates in Ty Jerome and De’Andre Hunter. 

Cleveland also finished the regular season with the best offensive rating in the NBA, so the Pacers will have their work cut out for them on that end of the floor. 

Indiana is going to pressure the Cavs full court at times, and I do love that the Pacers offense is far from an iso-heavy attack, with Tyrese Haliburton leading the way as an elite floor general. Oddsmakers seem to think the Cavs will win this series with relative ease, but the Pacers did have their number in the regular season – although two of those wins came in the final week of the regular season. 

Pacers vs. Cavs Prediction and Pick

After such a dominant regular season, it would be shocking to see the Cavs fail to advance in this matchup, but I don’t think they’re going to roll past the Pacers.

Remember, Indiana won two series as the lower-seeded team in the first round, beating the Bucks and New York Knicks last season. It also put up a fight (in a sweep) against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals.

There are some defensive concerns with the Cavs since they traditionally play two small guards, and I would be amazed if they play at the same offensive pace as they did against Miami, where they posted an NBA-best offensive rating of over 136.0. 

Cleveland has more top-line talent, but the depth of this Indiana team is really interesting to watch. The Pacers aren’t reliant on a sole scorer to carry them each night, and they have big games from Pascal, Siakam, Haliburton and others in the first round. 

If Cleveland wins this series, I wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the distance. 

Pick: Cavs to win series, Cavs in 7 (+380 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.