Packers Offer Plus-Money Value in Total Wins Betting Market

After an impressive run in the 2023 NFL playoffs, the Packers entered last year as one of the hottest picks to win the Super Bowl. They wound up disappointing fans and bettors alike, but, as they say, sometimes you have to take one step back to take two steps forward.

The Packers are currently +2200 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win Super Bowl LX. That’s behind the Eagles (+750), Lions (+1100), Rams (+1700), Commanders (+1900), 49ers (+2000) and Vikings (+2100) in the NFC.

While I could make an argument of the Packers being an interesting dark horse pick to win the Super Bowl in a wide open NFC, instead, I’m going to focus on the total wins market. Their win total has been set at 9.5 with the OVER a juicy +105 underdog to the UNDER (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Since taking over as coach of the Packers in 2019, Matt LaFleur has guided the Packers to 11 wins or more 66% of the time. In 2023 when they made the NFC divisional round of the playoffs and should have upset the 49ers in that game, they had nine wins. Last year, they had 11 wins. What that tells me is Green Bay has a better chance than not to hit the OVER with LaFleur at the helm.

The Packers have a tough strength of schedule on paper, highlighted by non-division games against the Bengals, Ravens, Broncos and Eagles. They also have some cupcakes against the Giants, Browns, Panthers and Cardinals, teams with some of the lowest win total projections in football.

If they can get two wins against the four tough teams and go at least 3-1 against the bad teams, they're already up to five wins. Then it comes down to how they perform against NFC North teams.

Last year, the Packers went 1-5 in the division. Before that, the Packers were 21-3 against NFC North opponents since LaFleur took over. I expect last year to be more of an apparition than the new norm.

The Vikings took a step back, losing Sam Darnold in free agency and replacing him with second-year QB J.J. McCarthy, who is coming off a missed year because of knee surgery. They went 14-3 last year, but the OVER/UNDER for total wins this year is set at 8.5, with the OVER a -150 favorite at FanDuel. Still, that’s suggesting the Vikings will win five fewer games this year than last.

The Bears have gotten a lot of hype this offseason after some solid moves to bolster the line in front of Caleb Williams. But their OVER/UNDER is also at 8.5 with the UNDER a -160 favorite at FanDuel.

The Lions remain the class of the NFC North, but even their OVER/UNDER total wins is low. After winning 14 games last year, their total wins is 10.5 and the UNDER is a -135 favorite.

Basically what Vegas is telling you is this will be a tight division and the Packers are expected to be the second-best team. The team with the THIRD-best record in the NFC North last year had 11 wins and it was the Packers. I’ll take them to get 10 or more at plus odds all day.

If you wanted to get more bold, the Packers are +250 at FanDuel to win the NFC North. The Lions are +155. I absolutely see a path to Green Bay winning the division, but I like the OVER win total more.

The Packers have been the most consistent team in the NFC North since the late 1990s and LaFleur has proven to be a winner in his six years in charge. His .670 win percentage is one of the best in the league for active coaches and would land the Packers with an average of 11 wins per year.

Sure, he hasn’t reached the Super Bowl as a head coach, but we’re not betting on Green Bay to win it all. We just need 10 wins. I think that’s within reach.

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