Padres vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, May 23

The Padres and Braves both limp their respective ways into Truist Park on Friday night as they open a three-game set in Atlanta. San Diego attempts to rebound from getting swept in back-to-back series, falling further behind the Dodgers and Giants in a crowded NL West.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off a two-game sweep at the hands of the Nationals and now trails the Phillies by a widening margin in the NL East.

Lines say that Friday’s opener should tighten up with a total of 7.5 featuring a compelling veteran pitching duel.

Chris Sale (2-3, 3.62 ERA) looks to build off a solid victory in Boston, where he struck out eight and allowed one earned run in seven innings. Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.86 ERA) gets the ball for the Padres as his first season in San Diego has delivered several excellent outings out of the gate.

Sale looks to begin a revenge mission as the Padres swept the Braves in a four-game set to open 2025.

Both teams are turning to the best of their rotation amid a slippery week. Let’s see how that storyboard can set up a path to making a game prediction.

Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

Padres +1.5 (-144)
Braves -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline

Padres (+150)
Braves (-178)

Total

Over 7.5 (-118)
Under 7.5 (-104)

Padres vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

Padres: Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.86 ERA)
Braves: Chris Sale (2-3, 3.62 ERA)

Padres vs. Braves How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 23
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park
How to Watch (TV): Padres TV, FDSN South
Padres Record: 27-21
Braves Record: 24-25

Padres vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

NRFI (No Run First Inning) (-120 at FanDuel)

We have two struggling teams poised to stay afloat amid their respective divisions with top pitchers on the mound, and it should show in the first frame.

In the last week, the Padres have been the worst-hitting team in baseball, which Sale should make quick work of at the jump. Sale has allowed runs in the first inning in four of his 10 starts — one of those was his season opener against the Padres on March 30, which the Braves dropped 7-4.

I’m looking for Sale to bring the heat to these whiffing Padres hitters as he’s warmed up into 2025 with an elite 32.5% whiff clip.

Pivetta has relinquished first-inning runs only once in his nine starts, and that was a blooper to the Rockies. The Braves will be looking to make a statement with Ronald Acuna Jr. making his season debut, but I’m favoring Pivetta to stay dry as he’s striking out 10 hitters per nine innings and the Braves have had more trouble with righties.

Padres vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Behind these two pitchers, both teams offer serviceable enough bullpens to keep this one to a minimum score (Braves, 3.64 bullpen ERA; Padres, 3.52 bullpen ERA).

Otherwise, we’re beating a dead horse on why this starting duo looks to make for quick outs on Friday.

Sale’s fastball velocity is even up since his reigning Cy Young season, which translates to how he has achieved at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six games. He’s been pitching deeper into games in May, which doesn’t bode well for a Padres lineup that’s leading the majors in strikeouts.

Pivetta gives the Braves their best fighting chance. He’s allowing his lowest career average (.248) on balls hit into play while limiting hitters to 0.89 home runs per nine innings.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-104 at FanDuel)

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