Padres vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 2

Every game down the stretch of the regular season means a lot of the San Diego Padres, as they are clinging to a half-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final wild card spot in the National League.

San Diego has split two games with the Cincinnati Reds to open the week, and it’s favored on the road on Wednesday afternoon in the series finale. Cincy is seven games under .500 and seven games back of the final playoff spot in the NL, posting a minus-112 run differential so far this season.

While the Reds certainly can play spoiler on Wednesday, it’s highly unlikely that they make a run to get them into the postseason.

San Diego turns to trade-deadline addition Casey Mize (3.45 ERA) in this series finale, and he’s looking to rebound from a rough finish to August, allowing 11 runs (six earned) over his last two starts.

The Reds will counter with lefty Brandon Williamson (6.11 ERA), as he’ll make his first appearance since April with the big-league club after dealing with a shoulder injury.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this National League showdown on Wednesday afternoon.

Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Padres -1.5 (+104)
Reds +1.5 (-125)

Moneyline

Padres: -149
Reds: +123

Total

9.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Padres vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Casey Mize (5-8, 3.45 ERA)
Cincinnati: Brandon Williamson (2-3, 6.11 ERA)

Padres vs. Reds How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 2
Time: 12:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Great American Ball Park
How to Watch (TV): Padres.TV/Reds.TV
Padres record: 73-66
Reds record: 66-73

Padres vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-131)

Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. went deep twice on Tuesday night, and now he takes on a struggling left-hander in Williamson, who has a 6.81 expected ERA and a .276 expected batting average against this season.

Tatis has been a menace against left-handed pitching, hitting .300 with a .979 OPs, turning 18 of his 36 hits against lefties into extra bases. So, that makes him a real threat to clear this total bases prop with just one hit, but a multi-hit game is also in play.

Over the last four weeks (25 games, 24 starts), Tatis is hitting .290 with 29 hits, six doubles and 11 home runs. He’s really found his power in the second half of the season, and we saw that on full display on Tuesday night.

I think he could have another big game in this series finale on Wednesday.

Padres vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

It’s hard to put too much stock into Williamson's six outings this season since he hasn’t pitched in multiple months.

Still, I think Mize has a slight edge over him, as the right-hander ranks in the 74th percentile in expected ERA (3.50) and has turned in a few solid outings in San Diego.

The Padres have turned around a brutal start to the year offensively, ranking 13th or better batting average, OPS and runs scored over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Reds are 25th in OPS over that same stretch and are 29th overall in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season.

Williamson allowed at least three runs in four of his six outings prior to going down with an injury, which could put a lot of pressure on the Cincy offense in this game. After all, the Reds have a minus-112 run differential because they’re 26th in team ERA and 24th in runs scored this season.

I’m buying the Padres in this series finale as they look to hold on to the No. 3 wild card spot in the NL.

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-149 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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