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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Max Fried K Prop and Astros hitting props)
It’s been a few days since we took a shot on some plus-money player props. Let’s have some fun with a few tonight!
All odds courtesy of DraftKings
MLB Best Prop Bets Today
- Max Fried under 4.5 K (+105)
- Yainer Diaz RBI (+130)
- Alex Bregman over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Max Fried under 4.5 K (+105)
Fried has not been sharp of late, but more importantly, Fried is not a high-K pitcher. Among qualified starters, Fried has the third-highest ground ball rate (58.6%)., and that’s what makes him so effective. He’s gone under this mark in eight of his 17 starts this season, and today he faces a D-Backs team that has the eighth-best strikeout rate vs. southpaws (20.6%). I’ll take the gamble for the plus-money payout that Fried stays under this mark.
Yainer Diaz RBI (+130)
A lot of things have to go right for an RBI prop, but these conditions should be right. First of all, Diaz is hitting .379 with 11 extra-base hits and 20 RBI vs. right-handed pitching since June 1st. Second, the Astros may be playing without Yordan Alvarez, meaning if Diaz isn’t batting cleanup, he’ll move up to third. Either way, he’s in the right spot to do some damage. Diaz is hitting .352 with RISP this season for a total of 43 RBI. Finally, the pitching matchup is favorable. Marlins’ starter Roddery Munoz has an ERA of 5.48 this season and Statcast says his xERA is 6.02. I’ll take the shot on an RBI tonight for Diaz.
Alex Bregman over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Bregman has also been hot lately with a .317 batting average and nine extra-base hits since June 1st. Bregman’s homerun swing is built for the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park, and he plays better when at home. Bregman has the seventh-most hits in MLB vs. right-handed pitching this year and Roddery Munoz should give up more than a few hits. Whether it’s a pair of singles or one extra-base hit for Bregman, I like this payout.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.
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