Panthers vs. Buccaneers Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 18 (Fade Baker Mayfield?)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup in Week 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A massive matchup for the NFC South takes place on Saturday afternoon, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield host the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young.

There are a ton of consequences in the NFC playoff picture in this game, as one of these teams will win the NFC South and make the playoffs:

• Carolina wins the NFC South with a win OR a Falcons win.
• Tampa Bay wins the NFC South with a win AND a Falcons loss

After Atlanta knocked off the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17, things became a lot tougher for Baker Mayfield and company to get into the playoffs. The Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints in Week 18. 

When it comes to this game, there are some intriguing playmakers on both sides that Mayfield and Bryce Young will look to on Saturday. 

I’m eyeing a few of them in the prop market, even though these teams didn’t play a high-scoring game in their Week 16 matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the props for this standalone game on Jan. 3. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Panthers vs. Buccaneers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Baker Mayfield UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (-111)
• Emeka Egbuka OVER 2.5 Receptions (+128)
• Rico Dowdle UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Baker Mayfield UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Mayfield is averaging under 220 passing yards per game this season, and he struggled mightily in Week 16 against the Panthers, completing just 18 of his 26 passes for 145 yards, one score and one pick.

He did throw for over 300 yards in a loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, but Tampa Bay spent most of that game playing from behind.

Since the Bucs’ bye in Week 9, Mayfield has cleared 223.5 passing yards just three times, and he’s completing just 61.6 percent of his passes since Week 8.

While the Panthers are not an elite pass defense, they did keep Mayfield in check just two weeks ago. I think this number is a little high in what may be a slug fest on Saturday. 

Emeka Egbuka OVER 2.5 Receptions (+128)

It’s been a rough second half of the season for rookie Emeka Egbuka, but he has caught three or more passes in 13 of his 16 games this season.

Carolina held Egbuka to just one catch in Week 16, but I expect the Buccaneers to involve him more in this matchup. 

This season, Egbuka still has 124 targets, 62 catches and 930 receiving yards, so even though his numbers have fallen off, he’s still involved in the offense. In fact, he has five or more targets in nine of his last 10 games.

At this price, Egbuka is worth a shot against a Carolina defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Pass. 

Rico Dowdle UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Carolina running back Rico Dowdle had a coming out party in the middle of the season, but he’s since regressed, averaging just 47.3 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry over his last seven matchups.

That includes a rough showing in Week 16 against the Bucs, where he carried the ball nine times for 29 yards. 

Dowdle has cleared 55.5 rushing yards in just two of his last seven games, and he’s failed to crack 60 yards in all seven matchups. On top of that, Chuba Hubbard (now healthy) has started to eat into Dowdle’s snap share in recent weeks. 

All of this lines up well for the UNDER, especially since the Bucs rank ninth in the NFL in EPA/Rush – even though they’re allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season. 

I’ll fade Dowdle in this regular season finale.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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