Patriots Super Bowl Odds Jump Big After Free Agent Spending Spree

The Patriots were among the most active teams on the first day of NFL free agency, signing several big-name players to revamp a roster in new head coach Mike Vrabel’s vision.

Oddsmakers took notice and improved the Patriots odds to win the Super Bowl as a result.

The Patriots were +9500 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl before free agency began and are now +7500. That was the biggest odds jump for any team at FanDuel during the early free agency period.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the move was more modest. The Patriots went from +8000 to win the Super Bowl to +7500 currently.

Still, both of these moves show how much oddsmakers like what the Patriots are doing.

The Patriots completely overhauled their defense on the first day of free agency, signing pass rusher Harold Landry III, linebacker Robert Spillane, cornerback Carlton Davis III, and defensive tackle Milton Williams. Williams was the biggest name, having won the Super Bowl with the Eagles last year, but Landry, Spillane, and Davis all fill huge needs for the Patriots on defense.

The Patriots also signed offensive tackle Morgan Moses to help protect second-year quarterback Drake Maye. They’ll need to add more offensive weapons for Maye, whether that comes in the draft or free agency, after reportedly striking out on free agent WR Chris Godwin.

Despite the positive momentum, the Patriots are still not considered serious contenders by oddsmakers. They’re +750 at DraftKings to win the AFC East, which is third behind the Bills (-250) and Dolphins (+475), and are +3500 to win the AFC, which is 10th, just ahead of the Radiers and behind the Dolphins.

Despite the poor odds, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. Maye showed great promise as a rookie, and Vrabel has a winning history in the NFL. He led the Titans to the playoffs three times in six years, including the AFC Championship in 2019, his second year as the head coach there. The Titans had two losing seasons in his final years there, but his ability to build a winning culture is unquestioned at this point.

The key, as always, will be the development of Maye. He went 3-9 in 12 starts as a rookie but completed 66.6% of his passes for 2,276 yards with 15 TDs and also ran the ball for 421 yards and 2 TDs. His 12 total turnovers are a concern, but his overall potential is not. If he takes a step forward and the Patriots give him more weapons, they could be dangerous.

The Patriots were focused on defense on Day 1 of free agency. That makes sense, given Vrabel’s background in both playing and coaching. Oddsmakers liked the moves and believe the Patriots are headed in the right direction.

Now let’s see what they do about the offense around Maye.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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