Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

The Cincinnati Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow, are looking to put themselves in position to go on another deep playoff run after having a subpar 2023 campaign. They'll open their season on Sunday in an AFC showdown against the New England Patriots, who many think may end up being the worst team in the NFL this season.

The Patriots will play in their first game without Bill Belichick as their head coach since the 1999 since. It's truly a new era for New England football.

Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet on this Week 1 matchup.

Patriots vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots +8.5 (-108)
Bengals -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Patriots +330
Bengals -425

Total

40.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Bengals How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 8
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Patriots record: 0-0
Bengals record: 0-0

Patriots vs. Bengals Betting Trends

Patriots are 5-14-1 against the spread in their last 20 games
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. Bengals
Patriots are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. AFC North opponents
The UNDER is 7-2 in the Patriots' last nine games played in September
The UNDER is 5-0 the last five times the Bengals have played AFC East opponents

Patriots vs. Bengals Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

Christian Elliss, LB - Questionable
Sidy Sow, G - Questionable
Hunter Henry, TE - Questionable
Vederian Lowe, OT - Questionable

Bengals Injury Report

Sam Hubbard, DE - Questionable
Jake Browning, QB - Questionable
Amarius Mims, OT - Questionable

Patriots vs. Bengals Key Players to Watch

New England Patriots

Jacoby Brissett: The Patriots have decided to hold off on starting their No. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye, and will instead roll with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback to begin the season. Brissett has little to work with in terms of talent on offense but we'll see what he can do to hold off Maye's NFL debut.

Cincinnati Bengals

Zack Moss: With Joe Mixon now in Houston, the Bengals will look to Zack Moss to be their starting running back moving forward. The 20202 third round pick pent has first four seasons in Buffalo and Indianapolis, averaging 4.3 yards per carry in his career.

Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction and Pick

The 2024 edition of the Road to 272 Bets has begun so I have a bet locked in for every single game this week, including this AFC matchup between the Patriots and Bengals:

No matter how bad you think the Patriots are going to be this season, I simply can't get to the Bengals being a 9.5-point favorite in a Week 1 game. The Bengals have historically started slow each season in the Joe Burrow-era, and people forget they were just 5-5 last year when he suffered a season-ending injury.

As a whole, the Bengals were 28th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play last season at -0.8, well below the Patriots who ranked 17th at -0.1. A big reason was their defense which ranked dead last in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.0 yards per snap. They made some small improvements by signing Vonn Bell and Geno Stone at safety, but that's not enough for me to think they're good enough this year to be an almost double-digit favorite.

I'll take the points with New England.

Pick: Patriots +9.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!