Patriots vs. Bills Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Can New England Cover as Major Underdog?)

Can Drake Maye and the Patriots cover?

Can Drake Maye and the Patriots cover? | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills have already locked up the AFC East, but they’re looking to stay in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the conference when they take on the New England Patriots and rookie quarterback Drake Maye in Week 16. 

Maye has led the Patriots to two wins this season, but New England may want to lose out the rest of the season to secure a better pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Josh Allen has been on fire as of late, and he may light up this weak New England defense. 

Allen threw for 362 yards and two scores against Detroit, running for two more in the process. He’s accounted for 10 scores in the Bills’ last two games alone, giving him some impressive season-long numbers – a reason why he’s a -900 favorite to capture his first MVP. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s my prediction for the final score of this AFC East matchup. 

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Patriots +14 (-108)
• Bills -14 (-112)

Moneyline

• Patriots: +625
• Bills: -950

Total

• 46.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The Bills are 9-5 against the spread this season while the Patriots are 5-8-1 against the spread this season. New England has only won two of Drake Maye’s nine starts. 

Patriots vs. Bills Final Score Prediction and Pick

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he thinks the Patriots can cover the spread as two-touchdown underdogs in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week: 

The Bills should absolutely be significant favorites, but a spread of more than two touchdowns should be reserved for games involving teams with no redeeming qualities who are likely starting a backup quarterback, like the Giants last week against the Ravens. The Patriots aren't that and while they have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, Drake Maye provides them consistency at quarterback.

The Patriots rank 18th in EPA per play and seventh in success rate since Week 11. They're also 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.3) over their last three games. That's not the makeup of a team that should be a 14.5-point underdog.

The Bills are banged up on defense. Casey Toohill, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Rasul Douglas, Matt Milano, and Cole Bishop are some of the names on defense battling issues right now, and as a result, they've allowed teams to score at will lately.

Let's not forget the Bills have allowed 40+ points in two straight weeks. They need to figure something out on that side of the football if they want any hope of covering this spread.

While MacMillan thinks the Patriots can cover, that doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a close game since the spread is so wide.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 19

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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