Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bet for AFC Championship Game

The Denver Broncos have their backs against the wall in the AFC Championship against the New England Patriots. The Broncos would have been home favorites in this game, but it was announced after their Divisional Round win against the Buffalo Bills that Bo Nix fractured his ankle, which means Jarrett Stidham is now going to get the start at quarterback with a Super Bowl 60 berth on the line.

As a result, the Patriots are now favorites to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in the Drake Maye era.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for Sunday's AFC Championship.

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots -4.5 (-112)
Broncos +4.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Patriots -238
Broncos +195

Total

OVER 42.5 (-112)
UNDER 42.5 (-108)

Patriots vs. Broncos How to Watch

Date: Sunday, January 25
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
How to Watch (TV): CBS/Paramount+
Patriots Record: 14-3
Broncos Record: 14-3

Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Trends

Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games
The OVER is 6-1 in the Patriots' last seven games
Patriots are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games vs. Broncos
Patriots have won eight straight home games
The OVER is 5-2 in the Broncos' last seven games
Broncos are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC East opponents

Patriots vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

Carlton Davis III, CB - Questionable
Harold Landry III, LB - Questionable
Christian Elliss, LB - Questionable
Thayer Munford Jr., OT - Questionable
Marte Mapu, LB - Questionable

Broncos Injury Report

Bo Nix, QB - Out
J.K. Dobbins, RB - IR-R
Lucas Krull, TE - IR
Alex Forsyth, C - Questionable
Troy Franklin, WR - Questionable
Pat Bryant, WR - Questionable

Patriots vs. Broncos Best NFL Prop Bet

Jarrett Stidham OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-113) via Caesars

In this week's edition of the Player Prop Countdown, I ranked Jarrett Sitdham to go over his rushing yards total as my No. 2-ranked prop for Championship Sunday:

I expect Sean Payton to implement a handful of designed quarterback runs for Jarrett Stidham. He already did those for Bo Nix, but those could get cranked up another notch for a quarterback who isn't going to have the chemistry with their receivers or the ability to throw the ball down the field as Nix did.

In his two starts with the Raiders, Sitdham combined for 14 carries for 84 yards, proving that he's athletic enough to move the ball with his legs.

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to Super Bowl 60, I wrote about why I'm backing the Patriots as favorites:

There are plenty of smart people out there who think setting the Patriots as 5-point favorites is too big a reaction to the Bo Nix injury news. A lot of Nix's metrics didn't pop off the page, so is a 7-point swing justified with a capable Jarrett Stidham playing instead? I think it is, but it's not just because of the change at quarterback. There is something to be said about Nix's ability to be clutch and come up with plays in big moments, something Stidham doesn't have, but I'm backing New England more so because of what I've seen from the Patriots lately.

The New England defense may have figured something out. The argument against them heading into the postseason was that their defense was one of the worst in the NFL, but they completely shut down both the Chargers and Texans. Not only keeping them from scoring, but finding ways to force turnovers. In fact, they've allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their past three games, the lowest in the NFL.

We already know the Patriots have a significant advantage offensively, and even moreso with Nix out, but if the New England defense can continue its momentum, there's a chance the Patriots run away with this one.

Pick: Patriots -4.5 (-112) via DraftKings

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!