Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for AFC Championship Game

The dream season for the New England Patriots continues as they're now one win away from returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since the Tom Brady era.

The AFC Championship has an unfortunate twist to it as it was announced on Saturday night that Bo Nix will miss the rest of the playoffs for the Denver Broncos, meaning Jarrett Stidham will get the start at quarterback. As a result, the Patriots are now 4.5-point favorites in a game where they would've been underdogs if Nix were healthy.

So, how should we bet on Sunday's game? Let's dive into it.

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots -4.5 (-115)
Broncos +4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Patriots -250
Broncos +205

Total

OVER 41.5 (-105)
UNDER 41.5 (-115)

Patriots vs. Broncos How to Watch

Date: Sunday, January 25
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
How to Watch (TV): CBS/Paramount+
Patriots Record: 14-3
Broncos Record: 14-3

Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Trends

Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games
The OVER is 6-1 in the Patriots' last seven games
Patriots are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games vs. Broncos
Patriots have won eight straight home games
The OVER is 5-2 in the Broncos' last seven games
Broncos are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC East opponents

Patriots vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

Carlton Davis III, CB - Questionable
Terrell Jennings, RB - IR-R
Mack Hollins, WR - IR
Joshua Farmer, DT - IR
Antonio Gibson, RB - IR

Broncos Injury Report

Bo Nix, QB - Out
J.K. Dobbins, RB - IR-R
Alex Forsyth, C - Questionable
Troy Franklin, WR - Questionable
Pat Bryant, WR - Questionable

Patriots vs. Broncos Key Player to Watch

Jarrett Stidham, QB - Denver Broncos

Jarrett Stidham hasn't started a game since the 2023 season, but all of a sudden, he's being thrown into the AFC Championship. He has started four games in his career, completing 59.4% of passes for 1,422 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions. This is also a revenge game for Stidham, who was originally drafted in the fourth round by the New England Patriots. Can he be an unlikely hero?

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to Super Bowl 60, I wrote about why I'm backing the Patriots as favorites:

There are plenty of smart people out there who think setting the Patriots as 5-point favorites is too big a reaction to the Bo Nix injury news. A lot of Nix's metrics didn't pop off the page, so is a 7-point swing justified with a capable Jarrett Stidham playing instead? I think it is, but it's not just because of the change at quarterback. There is something to be said about Nix's ability to be clutch and come up with plays in big moments, something Stidham doesn't have, but I'm backing New England more so because of what I've seen from the Patriots lately.

The New England defense may have figured something out. The argument against them heading into the postseason was that their defense was one of the worst in the NFL, but they completely shut down both the Chargers and Texans. Not only keeping them from scoring, but finding ways to force turnovers. In fact, they've allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their past three games, the lowest in the NFL.

We already know the Patriots have a significant advantage offensively, and even moreso with Nix out, but if the New England defense can continue its momentum, there's a chance the Patriots run away with this one.

Pick: Patriots -4.5 (-115) via FanDuel

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