Pelicans vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, Feb. 21

The Dallas Mavericks are shorthanded once again on Friday night, but they find themselves as home favorites against the New Orleans Pelicans.

New Orleans’ season has been in the tank for a while due to injuries, and now the Pels are fully in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. On Friday, the Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray (torn Achilles), Herb Jones (shoulder), Brandon Boston and others.

On the Dallas side, it signed veteran big man Moses Brown to help fill a void at center with Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively (II) and Anthony Davis all out of the lineup with injuries.

A lot will be on the plate of Kyrie Irving in the coming weeks, but Dallas is still in the driver’s seat to at least make the play-in tournament, sitting in the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Friday’s contest.

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Pelicans +5.5 (-108)
Mavs -5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Pelicans: +180
Mavs: -218

Total

238 (Over -108/Under -112)

Pelicans vs. Mavericks How to Watch

Date: Friday, Feb. 21
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center
How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local), NBA League Pass
Pelicans record: 13-42
Mavs record: 30-26

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Pelicans Injury Report

Dejounte Murray – out
Herb Jones – out
Yves Missi – questionable
Keion Brooks Jr. – out
Brandon Boston – out
Javonte Green – out

Mavs Injury Report

Anthony Davis – out
Dereck Lively II – out
Daniel Gafford – out
Dwight Powell – doubtful
Caleb Martin – out
PJ Washington – questionable

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets

New Orleans Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bet

Trey Murphy III OVER 21.5 Points (-120)

Back on Jan. 29, Murphy dropped a smooth 32 points against Dallas, and he’s pushed his scoring average to 22.4 points per game this season while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 37.6 percent from beyond the arc.

Dallas’ defense is much weaker without any of its three top bigs healthy enough to protect the paint, and it ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games (only New Orleans is worse).

Murphy, who has cleared 21.5 points in five of his last eight games, is a great target on Friday.

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Kyrie Irving OVER 27.5 Points (-120)

Irving should be in line for a big game against a Pelicans team that is dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games.

Since the Mavs traded away Luka Doncic, Irving is averaging 27.6 points per game, clearing this prop line in three of those matchups. On top of that, the Mavs guard is taking 20.6 shots per game over that stretch, giving him a terrific floor when it comes to his scoring props.

Irving should have a massive offensive workload again on Friday against a Pels team that he dropped 25 points against the last time he faced them.

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Even with Zion Williamson expected to play for New Orleans on Friday, I can’t trust this Pelicans team on the road.

In 21 games as a road underdog in the 2024-25 campaign, New Orleans is just 7-14 against the spread. Overall, it has won just four of its 27 road games, and it entered the All-Star break on a brutal stretch where it won just one game (ironically the final game before the break) out of its last 10.

The Mavericks are solid at home this season (10-7 against the spread as home favorites), and they have won two games in a row. While losing their centers hurts, the Mavs still have Irving, Washington and Klay Thompson to help them stay afloat on the offensive end.

New Orleans has the worst road net rating (-14.0) in the NBA, and I expect that to continue tonight.

Pick: Mavs -5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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