Penn State vs. Boise State Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Reed Wallach | Dec 30, 2024

Dec 21, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Abdul Carter (11) reacts after sacking Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) during the third quarter in the first round of the College Football Playoff at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

For Penn State and Boise State, it feels that both teams are seeking acceptance in the College Football Playoff. 

The Nittany Lions blitzed SMU at home in the first round, but despite being favored by double digits in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal, many are still questioning how legitimate this team is. Penn State will face Mountain West Champion Boise State, who will look to prove it can play with the Power Four teams in the CFP with its Heisman Trophy level player Ashton Jeanty. 

Both teams want to prove it can belong, but oddsmakers have taken a stance on the gap between the two. So how should we bet? Here’s our betting preview. 

Penn State vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Penn State: -10.5 (-112)
• Boise State: +10.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Penn State: -420
• Boise State: +330

Total: 52 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Penn State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Penn State’s offense is typically a run-first outfit, but the group may be best suited to take advantage through the air. 

Here’s what we had to say in our betting preview.

While Penn State is centered around its dual-threat run game between Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, I believe that this game should set up nicely for Allar to have a big game through the air. 

The Nittany Lions are a top 10 in EPA/Pass and sacks allowed, so the group should be well-equipped to handle Boise State’s defensive line and set up opportunities down the field for Allar and co.

However, Penn State has proven confident in its defense and content to limit its opponents and lean on its ground game, especially in a favorable game state.

Boise State ranks 95th in seconds per play and Penn State is 105th, so there may be limited snaps in this one. Further, given the tough matchup for the Boise State offense, I believe we are primed for a defensive-minded Penn State victory. 

There is a clear talent gap between the two teams and if Penn State does a solid job on Jeanty then the Broncos will be up against it to find answers through the passing game with limited passer Maddux Madsen. 

The Broncos offense revolves around Jeanty, who averages 26 carries and 192 yards per game. However, the team’s ability to lean on Jeanty has masked the limited passing game the group has to offer. 

Maddux Madsen has put together an impressive stat line this season, but digging under the hood shows that he has benefited from playing alongside Jeanty and in favorable situations. While he has 22 touchdown passes to only three interceptions, Madsen has made only nine big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays. 

Given that the Penn State defensive line should be able to keep a lid on Jeanty more than other teams have, there may be more on Madsen’s plate in this game. However, Madsen has struggled under pressure this season, making only one big-time throw to eight turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. 

I like Penn State to win a low scoring matchup in the Fiesta Bowl behind its vaunted defense. 

Final Score Prediction: Penn State 31, Boise State 17

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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