Penn State vs. Oregon Final Score Prediction for Big Ten Championship Game

Nov 9, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James (20) picks up a first down on a pass play during the first half as he breaks away from Maryland Terrapins linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II (4) at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Penn State and Oregon will face off in the Big Ten Championship as the Ducks try to secure the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff in its first season in the league with a conference title in hand and an undefeated season. 

The Nittany Lions bolster an elite defense, but does it have the versatility to keep up with the Ducks offense that has been as efficient as any in the country? Here’s a look at the updated betting markets as well as our final score prediction for the Big Ten Championship.

Penn State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Penn State: +3.5 (-115)
• Oregon: -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Penn State:+132
• Oregon: -160

Total: 49.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Penn State vs. Oregon Final Score Prediction

For Penn State, there’s plenty of questions about the team’s offense, which failed in its lone test against a top 10 team to date this season, failing to score an offensive touchdown against Ohio State at home. 

As noted in our betting preview, the key to this game will be how the Penn State offense gets ahead of the sticks. 

While Penn State’s defensive line is among the best in the country, I question the upside of this offense that has been lightly tested this season. The team lacks a dynamic pass-catching weapon that can stretch the field vertically which can give the Oregon defense something to think about. 

The big question for me is if Penn State can win on early downs. The Nittany Lions are 11th in early downs EPA/Play, per GameonPaper, while Oregon is 55th in the same metric on defense. However, the Ducks have been excellent at getting off the field, ranking 13th in third and fourth down success rate. 

If Penn State gets behind the sticks, that’s where I struggle to see the team keeping up. If the team can get Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton going in the run game against an Oregon defense that has been hit-or-miss defending the run at times, the team should be able to get into scoring chances. 

While Oregon ranks below the national average in explosive play rate both through the air and on the ground, the team is far more versatile in its method of attack with quarterback Dillon Gabriel and a healthy skill position group that makes me confident that the team can out-pace Penn State’s offense that is over reliant on its tight end Tyler Warren. 

However, the game script may trend towards a lower scoring affair as Dan Lanning looks to scale back his aggressive nature against a team that lacks as much firepower as the likes of Ohio State. 

The normally aggressive Dan Lanning may opt to be more conservative as he trusts his defense to keep a lid on a run-first Penn State offense that is reliant on being schemed open by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelenecki which can lead to more prodding drives and punts. 

I lean Oregon winning the title, but ultimately I’ll side with the under. 

Final Score Prediction: Oregon 23, Penn State 17

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.