Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Giannis, Knicks vs. Pistons)

The NBA Playoffs are HERE!

After a week of play-in tournament action, the field is set for the first round, and the NBA has given us four gems to watch on Saturday:

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Starting with the Bucks-Pacers matchup, Indiana enters Game 1 as a favorite at home with Damian Lillard (blood clot) still out for the Bucks. However, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Thursday that Lillard has been cleared and could return later on in this series.

Out West, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are expected to play one of the closest series of this first round, as stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray do battle with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. Los Angeles closed the regular season with the best net rating in the NBA over its final 10 games, but it is a slight underdog in Game 1.

The nightcap for Saturday starts with a young, hungry Detroit Pistons team hitting the road to play Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks. After making the second round in each of the last two seasons, the Knicks are aiming to put together a deep playoff run, but they did fall to Detroit three times in four regular-season meetings.

Finally, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers close out the slate against Anthony Edwards. The Timberwolves and Edwards made the Western Conference Finals last season, but they are facing an uphill battle to do that again in the 2024-25 season. Oddsmakers have set them as underdogs in this series – and in Game 1 – against a Lakers team that went 31-10 straight up at home in the regular season.

With all of these playoff games in action, it’s only right that we bet on them! Here’s a full breakdown of my plays for April 19.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

2024-25 season record: 218-212-4 (-3.22 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1228-1157-26 (+34.988 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
Nikola Jokic OVER 21.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit
Detroit Pistons +7 (-108) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
Cade Cunningahm-Josh Hart Parlay (+101) – 0.5 unit
Naz Reid OVER 11.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

With Lillard still out of the lineup, Giannis Antetokounmpo could be in line for a huge game against the Indiana Pacers.

Let’s start with how Giannis has dominated the Pacers over the last two seasons. Since the start of the 2023-24 campaign, Antetokounmpo has averaged 36.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game while scoring 32 or more points in five of his nine games against the Pacers.

Indiana does not have a single good matchup for him (who does?), and Giannis finished the regular season averaging 31.5 points per game over his last 10 games.

If the Bucks want to win this game, Giannis is going to have to be special, and he’s taken advantage of this matchup too many times for me to pass him up at this line on Saturday.

Nikola Jokic OVER 21.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

This season, Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double, putting up 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game. Yet, oddsmakers have him set a little lower than his season averages in this prop against the Clippers and big man Ivica Zubac.

If the Nuggets are going to win, they’re going to need all-around dominance from Jokic, and he did clear this line in one of his three games against the Clips.

Since the All-Star break, Jokic has found another gear, averaging 29.2 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. He’s going to play heavy minutes, and in a close game, I default to him being in the mix for a triple-double.

He has some flexibility to clear this line without recording one on Saturday.

Detroit Pistons +7 (-108) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

This season, Detroit has given the Knicks trouble, winning three of the four meetings and every meeting since the start of December.

Detroit is 12-10-2 against the spread as a road underdog, and it closed out the season strong, ranking ninth in the NBA in net rating following the All-Star break. The Knicks, on the other hand, were just 18th in net rating during that stretch, although a lot of it came without Jalen Brunson.

The Knicks played a ton of close games last postseason, and even though the Pistons aren’t extremely experienced in the playoffs, they do have a handful of veterans who should help them in this game.

New York’s defense is a major concern against Cade Cunningham, and I think this spread is a little too wide for my liking in what may be a long series. I expect the Pistons to keep this game within two possessions on Saturday.

Cade Cunningahm-Josh Hart Parlay (+101) – 0.5 unit

Cade Cunningham 25+ Points
Josh Hart 9+ Rebounds

Cade Cunningham 25+ Points

Cade Cunningham has destroyed the Knicks this season, scoring over 30 points in his last two meetings against them and 29 in another. He’s averaging 31.0 points, 8.2 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game over his last six games against New York, and he should attack their drop coverage with Karl-Anthony Towns at center.

Cade’s prop line is set at 27.5 points, but I’m buying him to score at least 25 in his playoff debut as part of this parlay. Cunningham finished the regular season averaging 26.1 points per game while shooting 46.9 percent from the field.

Josh Hart 9+ Rebounds

Josh Hart has been dominant on the glass all season long, averaging 9.6 rebounds per game.

We already know that Tom Thibodeau is going to play Hart and his other starters heavy minutes, and Hart averaged 11.5 rebounds per game in the playoffs last season.

Hart has picked up at least nine boards in his last four games and had games with 14 and nine boards in three appearances against the Pistons this season.

Naz Reid OVER 11.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

I think Naz Reid is going to have a massive role in the Minnesota-Los Angeles series, mainly because the Lakers would prefer to go small with Rui Hachimura or Jarred Vanderbilt on the floor as their center.

Reid – the reigning Sixth Man of the Year – averaged 14.2 points per game for the Wolves in the regular season, shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from beyond the arc.

He’s had two games where he’s cleared this line against the Lakers during the regular season, and the big man could see a ton of time at the center spot if the Lakers try to play Rudy Gobert off the floor.

If Minnesota wants to be able to match up with the Lakers' “death” lineup, playing Reid at the five is their best bet. With Edwards and Julius Randle viewed as the clear top options in this offense, I think Reid is being undervalued with this line set well below his season average.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.