Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for A'ja Wilson, Lynx vs. Sparks on Wednesday)

A'ja Wilson's dominance should continue against the Dallas Wings.
Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson.
Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday’s WNBA action features a pair of Commissioner's Cup matchups, and there are two bets that I love for this slate.

Starting with the Dallas Wings-Las Vegas Aces matchup, I’m looking to the prop market to bet on arguably the league’s best player – Aces star A’ja Wilson – who has gotten off to a blistering start in the 2024 season. 

The second game of the night features the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Lynx taking on the young Los Angeles Sparks, and the Lynx enter this matchup with the best against the spread record in the league.

Can we trust them again tonight?

Let’s break down the best bets in the W for June 5: 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2024 season record: 14-14 (-0.58 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

  • Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Sparks
  • A’ja Wilson OVER 39.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Sparks

There are a lot of things to like about this Sparks team despite its record, as rookie Rickea Jackson is averaging 10.0 points per game and Dearica Hamby is one of the best post players in the W. 

However, the Sparks have not paid off bettors in a way that they’d like, going just 2-5-1 against the spread on the season and 0-3-1 against the spread at home. 

Outside of Hamby, the Sparks lack a secondary scorer (Kia Nurse is second on the team in points per game at 13.0), and Los Angeles ranks in the bottom five in the league in both offensive and defensive rating. 

On the Minnesota side, Napheesa Collier has been the driving force to the team’s 6-2 start (7-1 ATS), but Kayla McBride (16.0 points per game), Alanna Smith (12.9 points per game) and Courtney Williams (11.5 points per game) are all averaging double figures so far in 2024. 

The Lynx are a perfect 2-0 ATS when favored this season and an impressive 3-0 ATS on the road. While the market seems to have adjusted to them being one of the league’s top teams this season, I still think they can run away with a win over this young Sparks team. 

Both of these teams come into Wednesday’s game in the top three in the league in effective field goal percentage, but the Sparks have a glaring weakness on the offensive end that has doomed them all season…

… they rank dead last in turnover percentage at 22.7 percent. 

If that issue persists, I have a hard time thinking they’ll hang around with the No. 3 defense in the league, especially since Hamby and Nurse have been the only two options they can count on for scoring on a nightly basis. 

A’ja Wilson OVER 39.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

Two-time league MVP A’ja Wilson has been on a tear to open the 2024 season, averaging 26.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. 

Wilson has cleared 39.5 points, rebounds, and assists in four of her six games, putting up 40, 47, and 46 PRA over her last three matchups. 

With Chelsea Gray out, Wilson’s usage has been massive. She’s taken at least 18 shots in every game, including 50 total shots over her last two contests. 

The Wings are down a couple of frontcourt players in Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard, so Wilson may end up having a field day in the paint in this one.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Published
Peter Dewey

PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.