Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A'ja Wilson, Lynx-Aces, Dream-Mystics)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the three games on Tuesday, June 11.
Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson.
Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Three more WNBA Commissioner’s Cup matchups tip off on Tuesday night, and I have a pick for everyone – a total, a side and a player prop – for the action. 

The game of the night is between the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Lynx and the Las Vegas Aces, which is where two of my bets are coming from, but I also think the total in the Atlanta Dream-Washington Mystics matchup hands us a pretty obvious bet to make. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2024 season record: 19-18 (+0.45 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

  • Atlanta Dream-Washington Mystics UNDER 157 (-110) – 0.5 unit
  • Minnesota Lynx +6 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Aces – 0.5 unit
  • A’ja Wilson OVER 27.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Atlanta Dream-Washington Mystics UNDER 157 (-110) – 0.5 unit

Why not start the night off with an UNDER?

In the first meeting between these teams, they combined for just 140 points, and that was with Shakira Austin (questionable) in the lineup for the Mystics. 

These two squads rank 12th (Washington) and 11th (Atlanta) in offensive rating this season, and the Dream are 11th in the league in effective field goal percentage. 

Atlanta’s offensive struggles are certainly a major concern, especially with Rhyne Howard shooting just 31 percent from the field over her last five games, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dream lean on their No. 5 defense in this game.

Unlike last season when Atlanta played at a high pace, the Dream rank 10th in pace this season and have played four of their last five games with less than 156.5 points scored. 

Washington – even if Austin plays – lacks the offensive firepower to really make a run at pushing this game over the total, and I’m not sold on the Mystics ending their 12-game winning streak on the road. 

If the Dream pull off the win, it’s going to be in low-scoring fashion given how they’ve played in 2024. 

Minnesota Lynx +6 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Aces – 0.5 unit

I really love getting a chance to take the Minnesota Lynx as road underdogs on Tuesday.

Minnesota is an impressive 4-1 against the spread as a road team and 5-1 against the spread as an underdog in the 2024 season, two of the best marks in the league. The Las Vegas Aces, on the other hand, are just 1-4 ATS at home. 

It’s shocking to see Las Vegas struggle this much in 2024, but the team doesn’t have as much depth as previous years with Kierstan Bell and Chelsea Gray out of the lineup right now. 

Getting Jackie Young back will help, but the Aces rank just seventh in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, which should be a concern against a Lynx team that is No. 3 in offensive rating and No. 2 in defensive rating. 

A’ja Wilson has been impossible to stop this season, but the Aces have lost back-to-back games to Seattle and Los Angeles.

They may not lose tonight, but this is way too many points to give a Lynx team that has proven it is one of the best in the league so far in 2024. 

A’ja Wilson OVER 27.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Wilson has been the best player in the WNBA this season, averaging 28.3 points per game and scoring at least 28 points in six straight games and seven of nine games overall. 

Earlier this season, Wilson dominated the Lynx in a 14-point win, scoring 29 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. 

I can’t fade Wilson at this number – even against a top defense in the league – given her usage this season. The two-time MVP has taken at least 17 shots in every game and is averaging 20.8 field goal attempts per night. 


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Published
Peter Dewey

PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.