PGA Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young and Collin Morikawa

The SI Golf betting panel has our full roster back for the second major of the season. While the PGA Championship gets a bad rap, it produces elite winners, including the last nine being multi-time major champions.

The only issue? History says don’t expect a longshot winner, though we'll still bet them!

SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan is back from his honeymoon and rejoins the SI Golf panel alongside Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams, and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

The PGA Championship returns to Aronimink for the first time since 1962, when Gary Player won by a stroke. Aronimink hosted three PGA Tour events since then: the 2010 and 2011 AT&T and 2018 BMW Championship. It has since undergone a massive restoration project to lengthen the course and add more bunkering. The Donald Ross greens will likely be the course storyline this week.

While Aronimink will play over 7,300 yards, expect to see a lot of short-to-mid irons on approach. It could turn into a bit of a bomb and gauge situation for the long hitters. When I was handicapping this event, I focused on players who were elite on approach from mid-range and long off the tee.

Of the last nine winners mentioned earlier, the player with the longest odds to win was Phil Mickelson in 2021 at +25000, when he became the oldest major champion in history. Outside that, it’s +3500 or shorter, punctuated by Scottie Scheffler at +400 last year.

Scheffler is the betting favorite to repeat at +480 on FanDuel. Masters champion Rory McIlroy is next at +850. Cameron Young (+1200), Jon Rahm (+1500) and Xander Schauffele (+1600) round out the top 5. We have action on several of those players.

While players with short odds winning is an interesting trend, the biggest is that the PGA Championship is dominated by Americans. Jason Day was the last non-American to win in 2015. Overall, Americans have won 89 of these compared to just 18 for the rest of the world. In history!

Let’s get into our picks for this week’s event with full breakdowns below the picks graphic.

PGA Championship betting picks | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler +525 (Bet365)

I hate betting on Scottie Scheffler, and I especially hate giving him out as a pick, but sometimes the obvious bet is the right bet. This is the first time in a while that we’ve been able to bet on Scheffler at around 5-1 odds, so I’m going to jump at that chance this week. He’s moved past the slump he was in early in the spring and is now coming off three-straight runner-up finishes. At the very least, having a Scheffler bet in your pocket should lead to some interesting hedging opportunities on Sunday.

Brian Kirschner: Cameron Young +1650 (DraftKings)

Look, if you have been following golf, I don’t need to tell you how good Cam Young is playing right now. Won at The Players, final group at The Masters and then he won the Cadillac by a touchdown. Young is destined to win a major in 2026. I think that this is a great spot for it. Cam grew up in the northeast, is an elite wedge player and has been putting excellently this season. I bet a future on him in October 2025 and still think that almost 17/1 is a very fair price on the clear third-best player in the world.

Brad Thomas: Cameron Young +1650 (DraftKings)

What’s not to love about Cameron Young’s game this year? He’s been a beast off the tee since we can remember. His approach numbers are staggering. And his putter has been sick outside of two events. To make it more impressive, Young has already won two really big events this year. He had a close call at Augusta, I think this is the week for him to grab his first major.

Byron Lindeque: Collin Morikawa +4000 (BetMGM)

While needing above average distance this week is important, being able to control your ample wedge opportunities into these complex greens is probably more important. Collin ranks 4th in the field in strokes gained from 100-150 (wedge range) and 6th in the field in driving accuracy. This combination of ball striking brilliance is going to give him perpetual birdie opportunities on Bentgrass greens, which is a surface where he leads the field in strokes gained putting since 2025. The two-time major winner returned to playing his level of golf at the Masters, finishing 7th despite not even knowing if he was going to be able to tee it up.

Cody Williams: Ludvig Åberg +2100 (Bet365)

Put the clown makeup on me. He has four Top 5s and five Top 10s in his last six starts. He’s a top ball-striker in the world. I refuse to believe that Ludvig simply isn’t on the cusp of winning a huge tournament, and maybe it’s finally breaking through with a major victory.

Brian Giuffra: Matt Fitzpatrick +2300 (DraftKings)

Is this the year of the Euro? After Rory won at Augusta, why not? The last non-American to win the PGA Championship was Jason Day in 2015. Rory won the previous PGA Championship in 2014. I know it’s hard to win four times in a season, but Fitzpatrick has the goods for this course. He’s long and accurate off the tee and has been dialed on approach, ranking third on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green. I’m hoping his T52 at Truist last week scares people off him. He was coming off a two-week break before then. The last time he took a two-week break, he was T41 at API. He followed that up with a 2nd at the Players, which he could have won. I see him being in contention again this weekend.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Rickie Fowler +6600 (DraftKings)

Rickie Fowler wins his first career major championship this week. Few golfers are coming into this week in as good of form as Fowler, posting finishes of T8, T9, and T2 in his last three starts. He’s now fifth in the field in total strokes gained over the last 30 days, and he finished T8 at Aronimink when it hosted the 2018 BMW Championship. Everything’s coming up Rickie.

Brian Kirschner: Si Woo Kim +6000 (DraftKings)

Si Woo is having one of, if not the best, years of his long PGA Tour career and I think this number is way off. He is one of the best wedge players in the world, has been dialed on approach all season and has won on a Donald Ross course before. Si Woo has a staggering 8 top 13 finishes in 2026. The putter is obviously a concern, but I am willing to find out if he can putt at 60/1.

Brad Thomas: JJ Spaun +7600 (DraftKings)

J.J Spaun is already a major champion. Why not add a second? If this week sets up as a second-shot course, Spaun is easily one of the favorites in my mind. He’s gained at least 2.4 strokes on approach in six of his last seven events. The one event where he failed to meet that mark is the Masters. Understandable really. His biggest issue has been his putter. Last week, it was hot. If he brings that momentum with him this week, he will be live to win.

Byron Lindeque: Justin Rose +5500 (Bet365)

Justin Rose has finished Top 6 in four of his last eight majors (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 6th), with two of those coming at the Masters, where he has had some great results, having lost in two playoffs. Speaking of playoffs, Rose lost to Keegan Bradley in a playoff the last time they played this course in 2018 and won here in 2010. He leads the field in strokes gained inside 150 yards out of the rough, as we are expecting roughly half of this week’s approach shots to come from this week. He is one of the best putters in majors, so the game seems as complete as it could be for this course.

Cody Williams: Patrick Reed +8200 (DraftKings)

We haven’t seen Patrick Reed in a pro tournament since the Masters — but let’s not forget that he was tied for second after 36 holes before fading to T12 to finish. What’s interesting is that his ball striking has been impressive to this point, and we know the upside of his short game. At Aronimink specifically, I think he has displayed the overall skill set to find success this week.

Brian Giuffra: Nicolai Hojgaard +7000 (DraftKings)

Sticking with my Euro theme, can Hojgaard get over the hump and win his first event on American soil? If ever there was a course, this is it. He’s 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green on Tour, 14th on approach and 49th in putting. He’s also one of the longest players off the tee, which should get some short-to-mid irons in his hands. That’s where his extreme accuracy on approach in the 100-175 range comes into play. He has two runner-up finishes this season and a T3 and T6. He’s going to win this year. It’s just a matter of when.

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Alex Smalley +12500 (BetMGM)

Alex Smalley enters this week tied for sixth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 69.00. He’s also 13th in the field in true strokes gained in the opening round of tournaments over the past six months. That, along with his strong form of late, is enough for me to sprinkle on him as the first round leader at 125-1.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Cantlay +4500 (FanDuel)

Patrick Cantlay is going to make some noise this week. I don’t know if he is going to be holding the trophy on Sunday, play in the final group and shoot an 82, or be FRL, but he's going to be a story in this golf tournament one way or another. His approach numbers have been special this year and he has finished top 10 in four straight starts.

Brad Thomas: JJ Spaun +6500 (DraftKings)

He can be a fast starter. That’s all I really need. The R1 strokes-gained leaders are all chalk. I’d rather take a shot on a guy whose approach numbers are insane and just needs to roll a hot putter.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +5500 (BetMGM)

Henley averages +1.7 strokes in R1, which is half a stroke better than any other round split. He is looking for his fourth consecutive Top 10 in a major and his sixth top 10 in his last eight majors, so he is very comfortable at the top of major leaderboards. From a course fit perspective, he ranks inside the top 10 in accuracy and strokes gained with his wedges (inside 150 yards).

Cody Williams: Alex Fitzpatrick +9400 (DraftKings)

He couldn’t close the door at Truist, but Alex Fitzpatrick continues to strike the crap out of the ball, gaining more than 17 strokes tee-to-green over the last two weeks in signature events. For a guy hitting it that well, is it that crazy to think he catches a good putter in Round 1 and cashes FRL? I don’t think so.

Brian Giuffra: Adam Scott +6300 (DraftKings)

Scott has been putrid in his last two opening rounds, shooting 76 each time. After that, he’s been elite, especially in the final round. Earlier in the year, it was the opposite. He shot his lowest round of the tournament in the first round four times in his first five starts. His low rounds of the year are 63 twice and 64 once, with a handful of 65s and 66s thrown in. I could absolutely see a 63 or lower being the winning score in R1. Scott is long off the tee and accurate on approach. Just need the putter to spike for one round.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Winning Score UNDER 267.5 +108 (DraftKings)

There is plenty of talk this week about how difficult Aronimink will play, but whenever I hear that about a major venue we haven’t seen for a while, I feel like it fails to live up to expectations more often than not. Keegan Bradley won here at 20-under-par at the 2018 BMW Championship. While the setup this week will obviously be more difficult, I fully expect the winning score to be -13 or lower, which is what we need to cash this bet.

Brian Kirschner: Scottie to win by 2 strokes or more +650 (Bet365)

When Scottie wins, he usually wins big. I think this is a really good course for him (no surprise) and it feels inevitable that he is going to win again soon. The fact that he isn’t one of the longest players in the world isn’t going to hurt him here. He has flipped his putting in a big way and I don’t think there are going to be a ton of wild variables this week. If Scottie wins this week, it will not be by one stroke.

Brad Thomas: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 incl. ties +100 (FanDuel)

It’s been three straight runner-up finishes for Scottie Scheffler, and honestly, his numbers have been great outside of his putter. I think with so much second-shot strategy coming at this course and much of that being with a wedge, it sets up perfectly for him. He probably wins, but if he doesn’t, you just know he will have a chance come Sunday.

Byron Lindeque: Xander Schauffele Top 20 +100 (BetRivers)

Xander has finished top 20 in 15 of his last 16 majors

Cody Williams: Mikael Lindberg Top 40 incl. ties +300 (BetMGM)

I’m probably getting insane with this one, but Lindberg qualified after a solo third and a win on the Asian Swing for the DP World Tour and did so with top-end ball-striking. For a guy who’s 750/1 to win, I’m willing to get super weird for him to just finish Top 40 this week to continue this heater of a lifetime.

Brian Giuffra: Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 incl. ties +186 (DraftKings)

Don’t think I have to explain this one. If I think he can win, clearly I think he’ll be in contention. He doesn’t have a Top 20 outside of the four Top 10s I mentioned earlier, but he’s been right there three times, finishing T22, T23, T24 and T27 in four other events. We’re talking 4-5 total strokes from eight Top 20s in 11 events this year. I’m backing him to get another one this week…and maybe more!

Winning Score

Iain MacMillan: -16
Brian Kirschner: -13
Brad Thomas: -20
Byron Lindeque: -17
Cody Williams: -15
Brian Giuffra: -17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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