Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 10

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves wrap up a three-game set on Thursday night, as Philly aims to take the rubber match with lefty Jesus Luzardo on the mound.

Atlanta is off to a terrible start, winning just two of its first 11 games, but it will send Spencer Schwellenbach (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound in this one. The first two games of this series have been decided by two or fewer runs, so we could be in for another close game in this NL East.

Here’s how I’m betting on this matchup, including the latest odds, player props, probable pitchers and my prediction for Thursday’s contest.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Phillies +1.5 (-1205)
Braves -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline

Phillies: +105
Braves: -125

Total

7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Phillies vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

Phillies: Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.50 ERA)
Braves: Spencer Schwellenbach (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Phillies vs. Braves How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 10
Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Truist Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, FanDuel Sports Network Southeast
Phillies record: 8-3
Braves record: 2-9

Phillies vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Jesus Luzardo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

So far this season, Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo has 19 strikeouts in two starts, punching out at least eight batters in each game.

Yet, he’s set at just 5.5 in his strikeout prop for Thursday night against an Atlanta Braves team that is 23rd in the league in K’s per game – averaging over nine punchouts a night.

That’s not going to cut it against Luzardo, who ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage and 89th percentile in whiff percentage, per Statcast.

Luzardo is also coming off averaging over 10 K’s per nine innings in two of his last three seasons. He’s currently leading MLB in K’s per nine innings and is a great target on Thursday.

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

The Braves have gotten off to a terrible start in the 2025 season, but Schwellenbach has pitched great, allowing just three hits, one walk and zero earned runs in 14.0 innings of work.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense has struggled, ranking 28th in MLB in runs scored and 24th in OPS.

So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Luzardo slow down this lineup, as he’s given up just seven hits and two earned runs across 12.0 innings of work.

The UNDER is 7-4 in the Phillies’ 11 games and 6-4-1 in the Braves’ 11 games. With the Atlanta offense stuck in mud early on in 2025, 7.5 runs is a little too high for my liking tonight.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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