Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, May 7

The Pittsburgh Pirates evened their series with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, picking up a 1-0 win behind a gem from ace Paul Skenes.

Now, Pittsburgh is set as a small underdog on Thursday against Zac Gallen, as the D-Backs look to turn things around after losing seven of their last 10 games.

Righty Mitch Keller (2.85 ERA) is on the mound for the Pirates, who have jumped the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central standings. Even though Pittsburgh is over .500, it’s still just fourth in the best division in baseball so far in 2026.

Keller is coming off seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Reds, and he’s led the Pirates to a 4-3 record in seven outings in 2026.

Can Pittsburgh pull off a road upset on Thursday?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this National League showdown.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates -1.5 (+144)
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

Pirates: -108
Diamondbacks: -112

Total

9 (Over -112/Under -108)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (3-1, 2.85 ERA)
Arizona: Zac Gallen (1-2, 4.45 ERA)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 7
Time: 3:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Field
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV/DBACKS.TV
Pirates record: 20-17
Diamondbacks record: 17-18

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

Zac Gallen OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+104)

Gallen has struggled in the 2026 season, ranking in the eighth percentile in expected batting average against (.301). The former All-Star has allowed seven or more hits in three of his last four starts, making him an interesting prop target on May 7.

Pittsburgh is 10th in MLB in batting average this season, so even after scoring just one run on Wednesday, I trust the Pirates offense to bounce back in the final game of this series.

Gallen has allowed 39 hits in 32.1 innings of work, and he’s struggling to miss bats in 2026, ranking in the sixth percentile in whiff percentage and the 16th percentile in hard-hit percentage. I’m fading him in this series finale.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

I’m going on a total fade of Gallen and taking the Pirates to win this game outright.

Pittsburgh has the better pitching staff, as Keller has outperformed Gallen to this point and the D-Backs’ bullpen (4.66 ERA) has left a lot to be desired in 2026.

Gallen is in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA while Keller is in the 61st percentile. The Pirates righty is also in the 93rd percentile in barrel percentage, inducing a ton of weak contact this season.

When it comes to offense, the D-Backs are just 20th in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) while the Pirates are now ninth in the league in the same statistic.

I think Pittsburgh is the better team at this point in the season, and it actually has an over .500 record on the road.

I’ll take this underdog price on Thursday, as Gallen has not pitched well enough to warrant a bet in a pick’em scenario this season.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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