Preakness Stakes Prediction, Longshot, Exacta and Trifecta Picks

The Preakness Stakes feels different this year, and not just because it’s being run on a different track for the first time in 117 years. There’s a ton of untested thoroughbreds in the field. How they react to racing in front of 100,000 people over 1 3/16 miles is anyone’s guess. But with uncertainty comes opportunity. Let’s see if we can cash in.

The Preakness is being held at Laurel Park this year, about 30 miles away from the normal home of the Preakness, Pimlico Race Course, which is undergoing a complete renovation. This will make for a very different race than we’re used to seeing. The turns are wider, the straightaway home stretch shorter.

Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo is not racing at the Preakness. Iron Honor was the betting favorite at the time of post at 9-2 odds. Not sure why, given he placed seventh in a Grade 2 race in April (behind two other horses in the field at the Preakness), but brighter minds than mine make those decisions.

Ocelli is the most recognizable name in the field after placing third in the Kentucky Derby. Then again, he was 70-1 at the Derby. Hopes should be tempered for a repeat stunner. He is 6-1.

There are 14 total horses in the field, more than in most years at the Preakness. While longshots rarely win here, this field feels wide open. Let’s get into our picks, starting with the post position, horses, jockeys, and odds.

Preakness Stakes Odds and Post Position

Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds
1	Taj Mahal	Sheldon Russell	5/1
2	Ocelli	Tyler Gaffalione	6/1
3	Crupper	Junior Alvarado	30/1
4	Robusta	Rafael Bejarano	30/1
5	Talkin	Irad Ortiz Jr.	20/1
6	Chip Honcho	Jose Ortiz	5/1
7	The Hell We Did	Luis Saez	15/1
8	Bull By The Horns	Micah Husbands	30/1
9	Iron Honor	Flavien Prat	9/2
10	Napoleon Solo	Paco Lopez	8/1
11	Corona De Oro	John Velazquez	30/1
12	Incredibolt	Jaime Torres	5/1
13	Great White	Alex Achard	15/1
14	Pretty Boy Miah	Ricardo Santana Jr.	15/1

Taj Mahal got the rail position, but could be a real threat. Ocelli is next door, though I do wonder if he’s up for a fast start after a quick turnaround. Iron Honor is near the middle of the pack. Derby sixth-place finisher Icredibolt has the shortest odds near the outside.

Preakness Stakes Longshot Bet

The biggest longshot winner in the last 25 years is Oxbow at 15/1 in 2013. Other than that, it’s 13/1 or shorter. The biggest longshot winner in Preakness history is Master Derby in 1975 at 23/1. What does that tell us? Don’t bet on the extreme longshots.

The Hell we Did (15/1) and Talkin (20/1) are the two most intriguing longshots in the field for me.

The Hell We Did has shown incredible speed figures and was second at the Grade 3 Lexington race a month ago. The big concern there is that it is his only race over a mile, and it was 1 1/16. This is a big jump up.

Talkin, even though he has longer odds, is ultimately the longshot bet for me. He’s run over a mile three times, moving from a 9th to a 5th to a 3rd place finish in those races. At the Grade 1 Blue Grass in April, he ran his fastest time over a mile and finished third, behind Derby contestant Further Ado. He seems to be trending up.

Not breaking the bank on this bet, but if we’re just Talkin, I do like the odds.

Preakness Stakes Prediction

With six horses sitting at 8/1 or shorter spread across the starting gate on a track most haven’t seen, this feels like anyone’s race to win. That said, Taj Mahal does have experience at Laurel Park. In fact, plenty.

Clearly gearing up for a Preakness run, Taj Mahal’s three races were at Laurel Park. He won the Federico Tesio in April and the Miracle Wood in February. Getting rewarded with the rail wasn’t very sporting, but he’s proven a winner here twice at a mile or more and grades out favorably speed-wise. My issue there? The competition wasn’t nearly as deep, and Taj Mahal didn’t start on the rail. Pass.

Do I think Ocelli is going to break his maiden at the Preakness after a surprise third at the Derby? No. I’m also not as high on Iron Honor, who has shown some speed, but got boat raced in his last appearance, which was also his first race over a mile.

Maybe all three of them are at or near the lead down the stretch. Taj seems most likely. To win? I’m going with Incredibolt at 5/1. He proved he’s got the stamina with his sixth at the Derby. His speed numbers are also among the best in the field. Being outside should help get off to an uninterrupted start. Then he’ll need to close like Golden Tempo at the Derby.

Preakness Stakes Exacta and Trifecta Picks

I’m certainly going to sprinkle action on Incredibolt and Talkin. I truly believe the latter has a chance.

Renegade came from the rail to place second at the Derby (it was honestly an incredible run by him). Perhaps Taj Mahal can make a similar run. I’ll probably pair him with Talkin and Incredibolt as well.

Chip Honcho is an interesting addition. He’s got 2007 Preakness winner Curlin in his bloodline and is trained by Steve Asmussen, who has led two horses to Preakness wins. He’s got speed, too.

I’ll mix these four together for my exacta and trifecta bets.

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