Predicting the NBA Finals Winner Based on Historic Statistical Trend

The 2026 NBA Playoffs are approaching, making it a perfect time to start compiling some futures bets for the NBA Finals.

When it comes to betting on the NBA Finals, there is one trend that has stood for nearly 30 years. Every single NBA champion has fallen in it, yet two teams in the top eight in the current betting odds don't qualify.

Oklahoma City Thunder: +120
Boston Celtics: +500
San Antonio Spurs: +550
Denver Nuggets: +900
Cleveland Cavaliers: +1500
New York Knicks: +1900
Detroit Pistons: +2500
Minnesota Timberwolves: +5000
Houston Rockets: +6500
Philadelphia 76ers: +9000
Charlotte Hornets: +15000
Atlanta Hawks: +15000
Orlando Magic: +25000
Los Angeles Lakers: +30000
Los Angeles Clippers: +30000
Toronto Raptors: +40000
Miami Heat: +40000
Golden State Warriors: +50000
Phoenix Suns: +50000
Portland Trail Blazers: +300000

Let me explain.

Dating back to the 1996-97 season, every single team that won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in the league in net rating during the regular season. With just three games left in the regular season, here's a look at the teams that fit that criteria.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.

This season's top 8:

1. OKC
2. Spurs
3. Celtics 📈
4. Pistons 📉
5. Knicks
6. Hornets
7. Rockets
8. Nuggets

Notable:
9. CLE
10. MIN
12. ATL 📈
14. LAC 📈
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 8, 2026

So, bettors that are holding tickets for Boston, OKC, San Antonio, Detroit and others are in the clear. But, if you're buying into the Cavs at +1500, beware, because they are currently ninth in net rating with just three games to play.

This trend can really help once some teams are eliminated in the playoffs, but it's also worth noting that a previous top seed like the Los Angeles Lakers, was outside of the top eight in net rating even before Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves went down.

Now, I wouldn't blindly bet on the eight teams in this range, but I do think there is a way to narrow down who can really win the title.

Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Boston are the clear three-best teams, and we've seen the Denver Nuggets win a title with Nikola Jokic leading the way. There is a proof of concept that can't be overlooked.

However, looking at the rest of the top eight teams, there are some clear flaws. Charlotte isn't even guaranteed a playoff spot after losing on Tuesday to fall to No. 9 in the East, and the New York Knicks and Houston Rockets have both struggled against some of the best teams in the league. They are both just four games over .500 against teams that have .500 records or better this season.

It's certainly possible that Houston and New York could win the title, but Houston is at best the fourth-best team in the West while the Knicks have a tough path ahead with Boston likely waiting in the second round. New York's defense has improved in the regular season, but it has not hit preseason expectations where it was supposed to battle for the No. 1 seed. To make matters worse, New York has been blown out in three meetings with Detroit this season.

So, let's talk about the Pistons.

Cade Cunningham's return improves the case for the Pistons, but do they have enough offensive firepower to win three rounds in the East and the Finals? Right now, I'm not buying it until Cunningham is able to prove that he can still play at an All-NBA level after suffering a collapsed lung.

The last two seasons, a team that didn't finish in the top eight in net rating during the regular season made the Finals (Dallas and Indiana), but they both lost. There's still time for teams like Cleveland or Minnesota to sneak into the top eight, but I'd avoid betting on those teams ahead of the playoffs if they remain outside of the top eight.

The latest betting odds have OKC as a clear favorite to repeat, but re-visiting this list once the second round begins could be a way to get value on a team that fits the best historical trend when it comes to NBA Finals betting.

Once the playoff matchups are set, I'll have picks for every NBA playoff game and my favorite NBA Finals bets. Still, until a team breaks this trend, it's important to reference it when investing in long-term bets ahead of the playoffs.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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