Public Betting on Chiefs-Bills Heavily Favors Underdog Bills

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, ready to throw a pass, watches his receiver get into a position during first half action at the Buffalo Bills divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 19, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As we move closer to kickoff of the AFC championship game we have some information that can help you get to the betting window. 

Despite being slight favorites at home in pursuit of a first ever three-peat in modern NFL history, the Chiefs are not receiving the backing from the public in betting markets. As shared from Ben Fawkes, the Bills are receiving a majority of the betting action in the lead up to Sunday’s tilt. 

Friday betting splits for Bills-Chiefs at several sportsbooks:

72% of bets, 74% of $$ on Bills +2 at @ESPNBET

67% of 🎟️, 70% of 💵 on Bills +2 at @BetRivers

64% of 🎟️, 41% of 💵 on Bills +2 at @CircaSports

63% of 🎟️, 66% of 💵 on Bills +1.5 at @DKSportsbook

59% of 🎟️,…

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) January 24, 2025

While all different sportsbooks operate independently, it's clear that the interest is nationwide on the Bills to cover as small underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in the fourth meeting between the two teams in the last five postseasons. 

The Bills defeated the Chiefs at home this season, beating the then undefeated two-time Super Bowl Champions 30-21 as two-and-a-half point home favorites. Now, in Kansas City, the line has flipped in favor of the Chiefs. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Bills: +1.5 (-108)
• Chiefs: -1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Bills: +112
• Chiefs: -132

Total: 46.5 (Over -106/Under -114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Can Bills Finally Beat Chiefs in Postseason?

The point spread implies that the Bills are the better team on a neutral field than the Chiefs, and given the majority of betting action siding with the AFC East champs. 

While the Bills came up short last year at home in the divisional round, as well as three years ago in an overtime defeat, Josh Allen has been excellent for Buffalo in these matchups. 

This is wild. Josh Allen vs the #chiefs

Regular season: 4-1 record. 25.8 PPG, 296.2 offensive YPG, 13 total TDs, 4 turnovers

Playoffs: 0-3 record. 28.0 PPG, 342.3 offensive YPG, 9 total TDs, 1 turnover.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 22, 2025

As seen above, Allen has raised his game when necessary, but the Bills have run into issues beating Mahomes when the games matter most. Can the team do it with most bettors backing them? 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.