Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, How to Watch Big Ten Tournament Final

Two of the best teams in the Big Ten are set to go head-to-head for the second time this season in Sunday’s Big Ten Tournament Final, as the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 18 Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue actually ended up with the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, but it has won three games in a row by seven or more points to advance to the final. Meanwhile; Yaxel Lendeborg and the Wolverines squeaked by Ohio State (by four) and Wisconsin (by three) to make the title game.

Only two teams have beaten the Wolverines this season – Duke and Wisconsin – so it makes sense that they’re favored by 6.5 points in this game. Still, Purdue hung tough in the first meeting between these teams, scoring 80 points in a 91-80 loss.

Michigan has all but locked up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Purdue could drastically improve its resume – and eventual seeding – with a win on Sunday.

Let’s dive into the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten showdown.

Purdue vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Purdue: +6.5 (-102)
Michigan -6.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Purdue: +240
Michigan: -298

Total

148.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Purdue vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 15
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: United Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Purdue record: 26-8
Michigan record: 31-2

Purdue vs. Michigan Key Player to Watch

Trey Kaufman-Renn, Forward, Purdue

Senior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn had a massive game earlier this season against the Wolverines, scoring 27 points on 12-of-26 shooting to go along with 12 rebounds.

He and Braden Smith are the two driving forces for this Purdue team, and Kaufman-Renn is averaging 13.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game this season while shooting 57.5 percent from the field.

He’s had 19, 10 and 12 in the Boilermakers’ three Big Ten Tournament games, but he’ll be relied on heavily against a Michigan team that is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

I shared my pick for this game in Sunday’s edition for Daily Dunk – our college basketball best bets column here at SI Betting – and I’m taking the points with Purdue:

Michigan is a true national title contender and only has two losses this season, but it has looked a little vulnerable in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Ohio State by four and Wisconsin by three despite being heavily favored in both games.

Oddsmakers have adjusted the line for the Big Ten Tournament Final against a ranked Purdue team, but I’m not sure this line has moved enough in favor of the Boilermakers.

Purdue has put together a strong Big Ten Tournament, knocking off Northwestern by 13, Nebraska by 16 and UCLA by seven to reach the final. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are two of the more experienced players in college basketball, and that matters a ton when it comes to March Madness and winner-take-all games.

Michigan had an 11-point win over Purdue earlier this season, but the Boilermakers showed they can score on the No. 1 defense in the country (per KenPom) in that matchup.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense has struggled in the Big Ten Tournament, putting up 71 points against Ohio State and just 68 in the win over Wisconsin. The Wolverines have won just one game by more than 10 points since that Purdue game, and while they deserve to be favored in this matchup, I think they may have a hard time pulling away on Sunday.

Purdue is easily the best team the Wolverines have faced in this tournament, and it ranks eighth in KenPom with the No. 2 offense in the country. I like getting the points with this two-possession spread on Sunday.

Pick: Purdue +6.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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