Rangers vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, May 7

Thursday’s MLB action kicks off with an afternoon matchup in the Bronx, as the New York Yankees and Aaron Judge take on the Texas Rangers for the final game in their three-game set.

Texas rode a strong start from Nathan Eovaldi to a win on Wednesday, setting up a rubber match on Thursday afternoon.

New York had to scratch lefty Ryan Weathers for this game due to an illness, and veteran Paul Blackburn will get the start in his place. Blackburn has a 3.21 ERA this season working out of the bullpen for the Yanks.

Still, oddsmakers moved the Yankees from -194 to -149 on the moneyline since Weathers was scratched, a sign that Blackburn is a significant downgrade in this matchup. Texas will counter with lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 4.67 ERA in seven appearances.

Do the Yankees still pick up a win at home after the Rangers snapped their five-game winning streak on Wednesday?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this matinee matchup.

Rangers vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rangers +1.5 (-163)
Yankees -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline

Rangers: +123
Yankees: -149

Total

8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rangers vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Texas: MacKenzie Gore (2-2, 4.67 ERA)
New York: Paul Blackburn (1-1, 3.21 ERA)

Rangers vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 7
Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, YES Network, Rangers Sports Network
Rangers record: 17-19
Yankees record: 25-12

Rangers vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+239)

The reigning AL MVP hit his 15th homer of the 2026 season on Wednesday night, knocking in the only run the Yankees scored. He’s hitting .381 with three homers over the last week (six games) and .333 with six homers over the last two weeks (13 games).

Judge has completely turned things around after a slow start – by his standards – to the 2026 season.

Now, he takes on Gore, who has given up five home runs in seven starts so far in the 2026 season. Gore has struggled against Judge in his career, as the Yankees star is 3-for-7 with two home runs, six runs batted in and a 1.841 OPS.

When Judge is on a heater, he’s a great bet on a nightly basis in the home run market.

Rangers vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

This is an interesting matchup now that Weathers has been scratched, as the Yankees are likely going to have to dig deep into their bullpen since Blackburn has not pitched more than three innings in a single outing in 2026.

Meanwhile, Gore has allowed at least three runs in four of his starts this season, including three outings in a row. So, should bettors trust the Yanks at home?

While I do lean with New York to win this game, I think the UNDER is the bet to make on Thursday afternoon.

Texas and New York rank No. 1 and No. 3 in bullpen ERA this season, and they combined for just seven runs on Wednesday night. Even if Blackburn exits early, the Yankees bullpen should be able to handle a Texas offense that is 28th in runs scored and 22nd in OPS in the 2026 season.

New York has one of the five-best offenses in MLB, but it was slowed by Eovaldi on Wednesday and may rest some key lefties against Gore, especially with an early afternoon start. New has hit the UNDER in 51.4 percent of its games while the Rangers have the second-best UNDER record in MLB, hitting it in 58.8 percent of their games.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see both bullpens keep this game in check on Thursday afternoon.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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