Rays vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 29

Sean Treppedi | May 29, 2025

Jeremy Pena is on fire as of late with hits in five of his last six games, which is why we're targeting his bases prop on Thursday. / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Rays head to Houston on Thursday to open a four-game series against the Astros at Daikin Park. Tampa Bay enters the series hovering around .500 and has struggled to find consistency in a competitive AL East, while Houston has spent much of the season trying to climb out of an early hole in the AL West.

Tampa will send right-hander Shane Baz (4-3, 4.94 ERA) to the mound, who has allowed four or more runs in five of his last seven starts. He’ll face an Astros lineup that has come alive with a .270 average over the last two weeks. 

Houston counters with rookie right-hander Ryan Gusto (3-2, 4.58 ERA), who has pitched well in stretches but has also dealt with control issues. 

Let’s talk about where the value is on the prop markets along with a prediction for Thursday’s game. 

Rays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rays -1.5 (+158)
• Astros +1.5  (-192)

Moneyline

• Rays (-102)
• Astros (-116)

Total

• Over 8.5 (+102)
• Under 8.5 (-124)

Rays vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Rays: Shane Baz (4-3, 4.94 ERA)
• Astros: Ryan Gusto (3-2, 4.58 ERA)

Rays vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2025
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): Space City Home Network, FDSN Sun
• Rays Record: 28-27
• Astros Record: 30-25

Rays vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

•   Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 at FanDuel)

How can we ignore Jeremy Pena on the prop market right now? Pena is a big reason the Astros offense is surging with six hits in his last four games. Pena has been hitting .313 in May and thrives in Houston, where his average jumps to .342 compared to just .242 on the road. 

Against right-handers, Peña maintains a sizzling .294 average, and he’s already seen success against Shane Baz, going 3-for-6 with a home run in their brief history. With career-best marks in pulled fly ball rate and a .288 expected batting average, Peña has the profile to rack up extra bases in this spot.

Rays vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Both Baz and Gusto have been susceptible to run production, carrying ERAs above 4.50 and WHIPs north of 1.35. Some of their underlying metrics suggest further regression is likely. Houston’s aggressive offense should feast, especially given its top-half rankings in slugging, OPS, and runs per game, plus favorable expected stats (.252 xBA, .390 xSLG) against Baz in limited exposure. 

Tampa Bay has a good chance to hit Gusto hard on his below-average 4.49 xERA. He’s also a problem with command right now, walking over four hitters per nine innings. His exit velocity also ranks in the bottom seven percentile per Statcast. Throw in an open roof at Daikin Park with humid air plus some wind in the forecast that’s expected to aid fly balls and there’s reason to bet the Over on Thursday. 

Pick:  Over 8.5 (-125 at FanDuel)

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