Reed 'Em and Weep: College Football Betting Preview, Analysis and Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend

There’s only one weekend of games before we move onto the business portion of the college football season with bowl season and of course, the College Football Playoff.

Before we get to the postseason, we need to hand out some hardware and crown the champions of each conference this season. While there are plenty of subplots in the games this weekend, which we’ll dissect below, there’s one directive for each team to hold conference supremacy this season: just win.

Well, who will?

Let’s get you set for each conference title game with a look at the key factors that will determine each matchup.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Conference Championship Betting Notes

AAC Championship Game Betting Notes

Tulane vs. Army

This game loses a bit of juice as Tulane dropped its regular season finale to take the Green Wave out of the running for a College Football Playoff berth.
However, this matchup should suit the Jon Sumrall’s team quite nicely as the team has already shut down a service academy team this season, Navy, 35-0 in Annapolis a few weeks back.
Sumrall, who was the head coach of Troy prior to taking over at Tulane, also beat Army the two years prior, winning by a combined score of 29-9.
It’s clear that the coaching staff has a beat on covering triple option offenses, and the Tulane defensive line will be the closest Army has seen to Notre Dame, the only team to beat the Black Knights in blowout fashion at Yankee Stadium by the score of 49-14.
Of course, the market is shaded towards Tulane quite a bit, the biggest favorite on championship weekend despite playing in frigid New York conditions on Friday night with the point spread hovering around six points early in the week.
On the other side of the ball, I struggle to see Army keeping a lid on Tulane’s run game that is led by 1,300-yard rusher Makhi Hughes.
Hughes is off his worst game of the season against Memphis, rushing for 15 yards on only nine attempts, but his rushing yard prop closed north of 120 in that game.
While possessions may be limited, I believe that Hughes can get over his mark of 88.5 in this one against an Army defense that is 100th in EPA/Rush.

Conference USA Championship Game Betting Notes

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State

Interesting set up given that the two teams played last week, but now flip locations with the Gamecocks hosting the CUSA title game.
It’s worth mentioning that Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff left last week with an ankle injury and is viewed as a game-time decision for this one, but the point spread indicates that he will play.
Huff has been fantastic in Rich Rodriguez’s run-heavy offensive scheme that is top five in the nation in EPA/Rush, topping 1,000 yards on the ground this season. He has been banged up at different times throughout the season, so if he plays I do believe he will be ok but it’s fair to be concerned.
Complicating matters is what to make of last week’s game. The Gamecocks had clinched a spot in the game while Western Kentucky needed to win to extend its season, which could’ve changed the game plans of both coaches.
Both teams moved the ball well, but there were five field goal drives between the two high octane offenses with a total that closed at 63. This total is currently sitting at 57.5 and I’m willing to bet on a far more open playbook in this one while taking the risk that Huff is fit enough to play.
This matchup should suit both offenses nicely. Jacksonville State struggles to stop the pass, which should lead to an efficient outing from Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp, who passed for over 300 yards last week.
Meanwhile, WKU has struggled to defend the run all season, and a healthy Huff with Tre Stewart has been the best offense in the conference this season.

Mountain West Championship Game Betting Notes

UNLV vs. Boise State

Interesting point spread in this one.
Boise State closed as a four-and-a-half point road favorite against UNLV in Las Vegas five weeks ago, and while the Broncos haven’t been at its best to close the season, the team has been downgraded quite a bit, laying less than that at home in the conference championship game.
To be fair, UNLV hasn’t been firing on all cylinders either, so I’m not sure I agree with the massive change in sentiment in the betting market.
The first game was close with Boise State pulling out a five point win, but I do believe there can be some external factors that help play a role in this game, including the frigid temperatures in Boise, Idaho for a dome team like UNLV.
Meanwhile, Boise State may have been coasting through the end of an easy non conference schedule with the inside track to the title game in hand already.
No team did better at slowing down Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty than the Rebels, the only team to limit the running back less than four yards per carry. However, the team was vulnerable on the back-end as Maddux Madsen made timely plays throughout the matchup.
One player I’m keying in on in the player prop market is Cameron Camper, who battled an injury throughout the Broncos win against UNLV, only playing 13 pass snaps, but still caught three catches for 38 yards. As the Rebels commit resources to slowing down the run game, I believe a healthy Camper can get to 60 receiving yards, over his total, something he has done in three straight games.
From the first game, UNLV was all or nothing on offense. Hajj-Malik Williams took six sacks, but did generate plenty of big plays, which is typically how this Boise State defense operates.
However, taking that many sacks in a championship game on the road may make this tough sledding for the Rebels, who haven’t been firing on all cylinders on defense over the past month or so.

Big 12 Championship Game Betting Notes

Iowa State vs. Arizona State

While Arizona State is playing far better football, a lot of that is due to the fact that wide receiver Jordyn Tyson has emerged as one of the best in all of college football.
Tyson, who has nearly half of the team’s receiving yards this season, will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, which will surely alter Kenny Dillingham’s plans on offense for the Sun Devils.
However, the team should have paths to success against Iowa State’s porous rush defense that is outside the top 100 in yards per carry allowed by leaning on star running back Cam Skattebo.
ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt may see a drop-off in play without his star receiver, but he has done a great job of keeping this offense on track all season, only making three turnover worthy plays on the season. Overall, this ASU offense is 11th in success rate as it minimizes mistakes.
The same can’t be said about Iowa State, who is far more volatile and reliant on big plays around the arm of Rocco Becht and his two top pass catchers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
The Cyclones will be able to test the Sun Devils secondary as arguably the best passing game the team has seen, but it’s far too volatile to trust. The team is 96th in success rate and reliant on creating chunk plays to move the ball, top 35 in both explosive pass and rush rate.
I envision many third-and-longs for Iowa State as the team will struggle to run on this havoc-minded ASU defensive line that is top 25 in EPA/Rush. While Becht may hit on a few chunk plays, it’s far too inconsistent to go to war against this well oiled ASU unit that can still dictate the terms of the game without Tyson.

MAC Championship Game Betting Notes

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio)

Miami (Ohio) will try to be the first team since 2011-2012 Northern Illinois to go back-to-back in the MAC while Ohio will try to hoist the league trophy for the first time since 1968. Legacies are on the line at Ford Field on Saturday.
The RedHawks took care of business against the Bobcats a few weeks back, closing as three-and-a-half point home favorites and winning with relative ease against Ohio, 30-20.
The onus will be on the Bobcats to make changes in this one as the team failed to register a tackle for loss and ended up benching starting quarterback Parker Navarro, who was a ghastly 13-for-22 with 88 yards and two interceptions.
Navarro isn’t a high-octane passer, posting a 10-10 touchdown-to-interception, but he has been able to move the ball through the air with his stud receiver Coleman Owen. In a dome, on a fast track, I believe Owen gets a host of targets to get over his receiving yard total in the high 40’s, which is depressed due to the low total of 44.5
While I think Navarro can improve his play, I do believe that this matchup sets up for a second straight Miami (Ohio) title.
Brett Gabbert gives the team far more upside in the passing game, but it’s been the emergence of Keyon Mozee in the run game that has unlocked this RedHawks offense to seven straight MAC wins. Mozee ran for 111 yards in the win against Ohio and has diced up defenses in league play, clearing 90 yards in all but one game this season. I’ll be on his over 85.5 rushing yards as he faces an Ohio defense that is outside the top 75 in rush defense and 100 in tackling, per Pro Football Focus.

SEC Championship Game Betting Notes

Georgia vs. Texas

A rematch from Georgia’s convincing win in Austin several weeks sets up for a Texas win, in my opinion.
The Bulldogs continue to put together shaky performances, including an eight overtime effort last week against Georgia Tech as three possession favorites.
While Texas was completely out-matched against Georgia, I do believe that some of that can be credited towards the team’s schedule to that point in the season while the Bulldogs had already been tested far more.
Not to mention that Georgia benefitted from several early turnovers (similar to how Alabama did against Georgia) to get good field position and cash in.
I also believe that this matchup may set up better for Texas, who will not be blitzed early with the physicality of Georgia, but also potentially tapping into a quarterback by committee of late.
Quinn Ewers played through an ankle injury last week at Texas A&M, but head coach Steve Sarkisian deployed Arch Manning in a run-designed package in the red zone, scoring the first touchdown in the game.
Georgia has struggled against mobile quarterbacks all season, including allowing more than 100 yards to Jalen Milroe and Haynes King. While I don’t believe that Manning will unseat Ewers at quarterback, rotating both in can work and potentially be a wrinkle to give Georgia in this game.
Further, Georgia will likely be without Trevor Etienne for this one, the team’s top running back. In the game against Texas, Etienne ran for 87 yards on 19 carries with three touchdowns. Overall, Georgia has had a middling run game all season, ranking 79th in yards per carry and 106th in explosive rush rate. Without its top RB, I believe the Bulldogs are going to be behind the sticks early and often.
We have seen Georgia start slow all season, and no that’s not your eyes. That’s rooted in fact.
Texas is nearly +16 in the first half of games on average this season while Georgia is a far worse +1. Take the ‘Horns early.
Look for Texas to get out to an early lead in this one behind a sound script from Steve Sarkisian and eventually win the SEC Championship in its first season as the team is well positioned to pounce on a potentially gassed Georgia team following a grueling eight overtime game.
I bet the Longhorns in the first half at a cheap moneyline price of -130.

Sun Belt Championship Game Betting Notes

Marshall vs. Louisiana

Louisiana has had a handful of fraudulent covers as the team continues to inflate its resume with wins against the spread when the defense continues to be a potential fatal flaw.
In the last two weeks, the Ragin’ Cajun scored a last minute garbage time touchdown to beat Louisiana-Monroe by 14 despite only out-gaining its opponents by 76 yards. The week prior, Louisiana beat Troy by 21, aided by a kickoff return for a touchdown, and was only +25 yards in the game.
It’s worth mentioning that Louisiana allowed 23 points to Louisiana-Monroe and 30 to Troy.
Overall, the team is last nationally in EPA/Rush in the country and can struggle to contain Marshall’s rush-heavy offense that has found its stride with Braylon Braxton under center who is the team’s leading passer and rusher.
Both teams like to run the ball, each top 25 in yards per carry, and should have the edge moving the ball against a pair of defenses outside the top 100 defending it.
The drop-off from Ben Wooldridge to Chandler Fields appears to be minimal, but the issue is the team’s defense when it comes to getting margin.
However, Marshall is far from without flaws, who has been out-gained or had the same yardage output as its opponent in all but one game in Sun Belt play this season.
Further, head coach Charles Huff has been linked to taking another job in the conference, Southern Mississippi, ahead of the Thundering Herd’s title game.
There’s plenty of question marks in this one, but if I had to make a play it’d be on the over.

ACC Championship Game Betting Notes

Clemson vs. SMU

I like SMU to get the job done in Charlotte against a Clemson team that has continued to fall short against quality competition.
For starters, the Tigers haven’t been able to put together an efficient outing against a quality defensive line all season long. Against Georgia, Louisville, Pitt and South Carolina, all teams inside the top 50 in pass rush grade, shut down the Clemson offense to either fewer than five yards per play or a negative EPA/Play mark.
SMU fits the bill of that with an elite pass rush and arguably the best rush defense in the nation, ranking tops in EPA/Rush and third in yards per carry allowed.
It’s worth noting that Clemson running back Phil Mafah has started to slow down as the season has gone on, potentially feeling the effects of a heavy workload all season. Over the last three games, he is averaging nearly three yards per carry and now has to face an elite rush defense.
While Clemson’s offense is set to struggle, I believe the defense has issues as well facing a potent SMU offense.

The move to quarterback Kevin Jennings has paid off big time for Rhett Lashlee and SMU, who went undefeated in ACC play this season. With Jennings in, SMU has scored at least 28 points in every game he has started, including 38 or more in six of nine games.
The Clemson defense is far worse than the name on the helmet would lead you to believe.
The defensive line is capable, top 35 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, but its vulnerable against the run, 106th in EPA/Rush and struggles to contain big plays, ranking bottom half of the country in explosive rush and pass rate.
We’ve seen Clemson falter all season long against quality competition, and while there is some concern about SMU’s strength of schedule, the team is being underrated heading into the ACC title game.

Big Ten Championship Game Betting Notes

Penn State vs. Oregon

Penn State is into the Big Ten title game in place of Ohio State after the Buckeyes lost to Michigan, the last team to try and stop Oregon from an undefeated regular season.
While Penn State’s defensive line is among the best in the country, I question the upside of this offense that has been lightly tested this season. The team lacks a dynamic pass-catching weapon that can stretch the field vertically which can give the Oregon defense something to think about.
The big question for me is if Penn State can win on early downs. The Nittany Lions are 11th in early downs EPA/Play, per GameonPaper, while Oregon is 55th in the same metric on defense. However, the Ducks have been excellent at getting off the field, ranking 13th in third and fourth down success rate.
If Penn State gets behind the sticks, that’s where I struggle to see the team keeping up. If the Nittany Lions can get Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton going in the run game against an Oregon defense that has been hit-or-miss defending the run at times, the team should be able to get into scoring chances.
However, I see more versatility on the Oregon side that makes me confident the team can win the Big Ten Championship. The team is incredibly efficient and has proven it can win through the air and on the ground with running back Jordan James. It also helps that Tez Johnson returned last week from injury and should continue to see more snaps after missing a few weeks with a shoulder injury.
To be clear, Penn State’s defensive line is among the best in the country, ranking top 10 in pass rush grading according to Pro Football Focus. Oregon may find itself at times struggling to stay on schedule, and it has had issues generating chunk plays all season, below the national average in explosive pass and rush rate.
That’s why I land on the under in this game.
The normally aggressive Dan Lanning may opt to be more conservative as he trusts his defense to keep a lid on a run-first Penn State offense that is reliant on being schemed open by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelenecki which can lead to more prodding drives and punts.
While I think this Penn State offense is unique, it’s also reliant on a tight end to be its big play weapon in WarrenTo be clear, Penn State’s defensive line is among the best in the country, ranking top 10 in pass rush grading according to Pro Football Focus. Oregon may find itself at times struggling to stay on schedule, and it has had issues generating chunk plays all season, below the national average in explosive pass and rush rate.
That’s why I land on the under in this game.
The normally aggressive Dan Lanning may opt to be more conservative as he trusts his defense to keep a lid on a run-first Penn State offense that is reliant on being schemed open by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelenecki which can lead to more prodding drives and punts.
Penn State failed to score an offensive touchdown against Ohio State at home a few weeks back and I feel like it can be another drag for the team’s offense.