Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Second Round

There were some nervous moments for Frances Tiafoe – the No. 11-ranked player at the U.S. Open – on Monday, but he was able to hang on to beat Martin Damm Jr. in five sets to advance to the second round.

Tiafoe dropped two of the first three sets, and he certainly worked a little harder than expected, as he was a pretty big favorite heading into that first-round title. Now, he finds himself in a similar spot in Round 2 against Rei Sakamoto, who is making his second Grand Slam appearance of his young career.

Sakamoto is in the second round at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career, and the 20-year-old showed some resilience to win in five sets in Round 1. He’s now eyeing another upset against Tiafoe, who has made the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open in three of his last four appearances.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s history at the U.S. Open and my prediction for this exciting second-round match.

Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Rei Sakamoto: +296
Frances Tiafoe: -410

Total

37.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 2
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited

Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe History and U.S. Open Performance

Rei Sakamoto

Sakamoto is making his second-ever appearance at a Grand Slam, and he earned his first win earlier this week over Aleksander Vukic in five sets.

The only other Grand Slam experience that Sakamoto has is a first-round exit at the Australian Open, so this is a tough test against the No. 11-ranked player in Tiafoe. This year, Sakamoto entered the U.S. Open with a win/loss record of 1-3.

Frances Tiafoe

The first round of the U.S. Open had some anxious moments for Tiafoe, as Damm took him the distance before the No. 11-ranked player won the last two sets.

There’s no doubt that Tiafoe has played the U.S. Open better than any Grand Slam event in his career, which makes him an intriguing option in Round 2. He has three quarterfinal appearances and two semifinal appearances at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. He only has two other quarterfinal appearances between the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon.

Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction and Pick

Both of these players went to five sets in their first meeting, but the betting odds suggest a much easier path to the third round for Tiafoe, who is a -410 favorite.

Despite that, I’m going to avoid a side and take a total in this match.

Tiafoe needed 48 games to get past Damm in the first round, and now he’s taking on a youngster that he’s never faced in his career. That could make things easier on the American, but Sakamoto upset Vukic in Round 1.

That match finished with 52 total games, which is also way over the total for this matchup (37.5).

I don’t want to fade Tiafoe, but he’s not nearly as dominant as some of the best players in this tournament. After all, he’s gone to four sets in all but two of his Grand Slam matches in 2026 (both that he didn’t go to a fourth set in the Australian Open).

This could end up being a long match, especially if Tiafoe gets off to another slow start.

Pick: OVER 37.5 Games (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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