Rice vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Armed Forces Bowl

This could have the makings of a lopsided matchup.

Brad Jackson and Texas State are favored against Rice on Friday. / Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Two programs from the Longhorn State will duke it out in the 2025 Armed Forces Bowl. Texas State is set to face Rice as a massive 15.5-point favorite. The Bobcats have momentum on their side and will enter the matchup having won three straight contests.

Texas State has comfortably been one of the Sun Belt Conference’s most productive passing teams. It’s only second to No. 24 James Madison in points per game, with an average of 36.1, and has thrived through the air and on the ground. Brad Jackson’s influence as quarterback has driven that success. The Owls’ poor scoring defense could have a tough time keeping the Bobcats in check.

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

Rice vs. Texas State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Rice: +15.5 (-105)
• Texas State: -15.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Rice: +560
• Texas State: -800

Total: 56.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rice vs. Texas State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, January 2
• Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
• Venue: Amon G Carter Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Rice: 5-7
• Texas State: 6-6

Rice vs. Texas State Key Players to Watch

Rice

Chase Jenkins: Jenkins’ numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s taken care of the ball and has thrown nine touchdown passes with just two picks this season. While Rice’s quarterback has tallied just 1,025 passing yards, he’s also rushed for 531 yards and five touchdowns. He’ll likely have to do a lot more than that to match the Bobcats’ production on offense.

Texas State

Brad Jackson: Jackson has thrown for 3,052 yards and 18 touchdowns while completing 71.3 percent of his passes in his second collegiate season. He’s also been electric on the ground with 692 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. Jackson leads the Sun Belt in rushing touchdowns. There’s a good chance he’ll reach the end zone ahead of the weekend after notching at least one rushing touchdown in 10 of the 12 games he’s appeared in this year.

Rice vs. Texas State Prediction and Pick

Rice and Texas State are .500 or worse straight up and against the spread this season. The Owls are 5-7 against the spread while the Bobcats are 4-8. These teams are in completely different leagues on offense, though.

Rice is second to last in the American Conference in points per game with an average of just 19.8. Only Army has recorded fewer passing yards in conference play. The Owls are also giving up nearly 30.0 points per game on defense, so it’s very unlikely that they’ll be able to contain the Bobcats’ high-octane offense.

Jackson powers a Texas State team that’s posting 36.1 points per game, and the opposition doesn’t have enough firepower through the air or on the ground to stay within two touchdowns of that.

PICK: Texas State -15.5 (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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