Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 17 Picks for Every Game

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

Best bets for all 16 NFL Week 17 games. / James: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images, Saquon: Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Pickens: Cooper Neill/Getty Images, Kittle: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

It's a Christmas miracle! The Road to 272 Bets finally had a winning week! We didn't walk away with a massive profit, but a 9-7 record for +1.49 units is at least a step in the right direction, something we haven't taken in several weeks.

There are now just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, so let's see if we can finish the season on a high note by ripping off three-straight profitable editions of the Road to 272. It's time to dive into my best bets for all 16 Week 17 games.

Road to 272 Bets Week 16 Record

• 9-7 (+1.49 units)

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

• 103-136-1 (-32.1 units)

NFL Week 17 Best Bets for Every Game

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction

It's hard to evaluate both teams with nothing to play for in this game, but we do know that this is a matchup between arguably the two worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 30th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play, 27th and 30th in opponent success rate, as well as 29th and 31st in opponent yards per play. They are also both in the bottom seven in scoring defense, allowing a combined 56.9 points per game.

Let's not overthink the first game on Christmas. Sit back, bet the OVER, and root for points.

Pick: DAL/WAS OVER 50.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Lions vs. Vikings Prediction

The Lions are still alive in the race for the playoffs, but their only hope is to win their final two games, so they should come out firing in this game. It's unannounced whether or not J.J. McCarthy will be able to suit up for the Vikings, but it wasn't a good sign that he couldn't grip the ball after injuring his hand on Sunday. If Max Brosmer gets the start for the Vikings, Minnesota might be cooked.

Things haven't broken the Lions' way this season, but I still think they're one of the better teams in the league, ranking inside the top 10 in virtually every single metric, and their effective run game should be able to take advantage of the Vikings' run defense. I'll lay the points with Detroit.

Pick: Lions -5.5 (-118) via FanDuel

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction

The Chiefs are spiraling, but I still think they have too much talent and are coached too well to lay 10.5 points against them when they're playing on their home field. Chris Oladokun also deserves some credit. He completed 68.8% of passes for 111 yards in relief for Gardner Minshew on Sunday against the Titans. If he can continue to be that efficient this week, he may have what it takes to keep this game within reach.

The Broncos' defense is an overrated unit, and there are ways to exploit them, including targeting the opposite side of the field that Patrick Surtain is defending. Teams have figured that out and utilized that strategy in recent weeks. This game will be closer than some people expect.

Pick: Chiefs +10.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Texans vs. Chargers Prediction

The Texans and Chargers are more alike than you might think. Both teams are in the playoffs because of their defenses, have talented quarterbacks, but are held back offensively due to bad and/or injured offensive lines. That combination makes me think we're going to see a low-scoring affair on Saturday. Both defenses rank inside the top 5 in opponent EPA per play, opponent success rate, and opponent yards per play. The Texans also boast the best scoring defense in the league, keeping teams to scoring just 16.3 points per game, the fewest in the NFL by 2.3 points per game.

Both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. In my opinion, the total belongs in the high-30s, so with the total set at 40.5, I'll take the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 40.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Ravens vs. Packers Prediction

Both starting quarterbacks for these two teams left their Week 16 matchups with injuries. Jordan Love suffered a concussion against the Bears, and Lamar Jackson suffered a back injury against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. It's hard to tell which of the two quarterbacks, if either, will return for Saturday's game, which means we have to set quarterbacks aside when handicapping this game until we find out their status.

There's no escaping that the Ravens have had a bad season, and it hasn't just been poor luck. Their defense is just 17th in opponent EPA per play, and they allow 5.4 yards per snap, well below the Packers' defense, which has allowed 4.9 yards per snap. As a whole, the Ravens rank 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.3, while the Packers are sixth at +0.7.

I'll lay the points with Green Bay on their home field and hope Love returns to action.

Pick: Packers -2.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Seahawks vs. Panthers Prediction

The Seahawks made a strong case last week that they're the best team in football. They are now first in the league in overall DVOA, and as they proved against the Rams, it's not just their elite offense and defense that separates them from the pack, but they also have a top-three special teams unit that can turn the tides of momentum in their favor.

Credit to the Panthers for battling for the NFC South lead, but they aren't in the same class as the Seahawks. They still rank 25th in the league in total DVOA, which is one spot below the Cardinals and one spot above the Giants. The Seahawks defense is going to put Bryce Young in a blender, and Seattle is going to run away with the win and cover.

Pick: Seahawks -7.5 (-104) via FanDuel

Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction

People are so quick to forget that the Colts are still a very good football team. Sure, they've regressed in recent weeks, and they aren't quite as effective offensively as they were with Daniel Jones at quarterback, but he wasn't the heart and soul of the team. Jonathan Taylor, elite schemes, a solid defense, and a team with no glaring weakness are why they got off to their hot start. There's no world in which they should be favored against Jacksonville, but 6.5-point home underdogs seems a bit too much.

Indianapolis is still a top-five team via DVOA, and they're in the top 12 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They have the ability to keep this one close against a Jaguars team that's in a huge "sell high" spot in Week 17, coming off an impressive win against the Broncos.

Pick: Colts +6.5 (-104) via FanDuel

Saints vs. Titans Prediction

Something is building in New Orleans. It's too little too late for their playoff hopes, but the Saints, with Tyler Shough at quarterback, are all of a sudden a dangerous team for anyone to face. Their defense has been a solid unit all season long, ranking 12th in opponent EPA per play, but now Shough has brought their offense along with them and is coming off his first career 300-yard performance.

The Titans still have some fight in them as well, but let's not buy into them too much after a win against a depleted Chiefs team in Week 16. Shough has the chance to do some real damage against a Titans defense that's bottom five in most categories.

Pick: Saints -2.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Cardinals vs. Bengals Prediction

The Bengals may have figured things out offensively in Week 16 against the Dolphins, but their defense still scares me too much to lay this many points on them, especially in a meaningless game for them. Cincinnati ranks 31st in opponent EPA per play and last in the league in opponent success rate.

Jacoby Brissett's play hasn't led the Cardinals to any wins, but it is worth noting he's 18th in the NFL in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected, which is one spot better than Justin Herbert and one spot worse than Aaron Rodgers. He's good enough in this Cardinals offense to keep things close against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Pick: Cardinals +6 (-110) via DraftKings

Steelers vs. Browns Prediction

The Steelers' offense has been better of late, but now they hit the road to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they may be without their star receiver, DK Metcalf, who was caught on camera punching a fan against the Lions this past weekend. That could lead to a lackluster offensive performance against the Browns' defense and Myles Garrett, who has a chance to secure the all-time sack record against Aaron Rodgers, who is not nearly as mobile as he was in the prime of his career.

At the same time, I can't trust the Browns' offense at all. Quinshon Judkins is out for the year, and they have no other answer offensively. Shedeur Sanders' numbers are amongst the worst in the league, and he will struggle to move the ball against a solid Pittsburgh defense.

This game has one of the lowest totals in the NFL this season, but that won't scare me away from betting the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 34.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Patriots vs. Jets Prediction

The Jets have no answer for any team at this point in the season. The Brady Cook experiment has looked lackluster, and they have no weapons on defense to lean on. They now rank 29th in EPA per play and 28th in opponent EPA per play, which means they're the only team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom five of both those metrics.

The Patriots' defense can be exploited by elite offenses, but the Jets are far from having an offense that can take advantage. There should be no stopping New England in this AFC East duel, especially with the Patriots still fighting for the divisional crown with Buffalo.

Pick: Patriots -12.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Prediction

The spread in this game tells me that the betting market still isn't fully accepting how bad this Buccaneers team is now. They're in the bottom five in net yards per play, and in the bottom 10 in DVOA, EPA, and success rate. Baker Mayfield has also been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in the second half of the season.

The Dolphins' defense is bad, but can Mayfield take advantage? I'm not so sure. The Dolphins have enough talent to keep this game close on their home field.

Pick: Dolphins +5.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Giants vs. Raiders Prediction

It's a Week 17 game between two really bad teams whose seasons ended a month ago. At this point, taking the home team that's getting points seems to be the only logical bet to make. The Giants can't be trusted to cover a spread. Their offense shows flashes of competence with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, but their defense is one of the worst in the league, especially when it comes to stopping the run.

The Raiders have struggled to get their top draft pick, Ashton Jeanty, going on the ground much this season, but if there's any team that he can finally have a breakout game against, it's the team that allows 5.5 yards per carry. Additionally, the Raiders' defense has been a solid unit all season long. Give me the 2.5 points with Las Vegas.

Pick: Raiders +2.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Eagles vs. Bills Prediction

The Buffalo Bills escaped Cleveland with a win in Week 16, but it was further proof that they're a team with more issues than their record indicates. Their biggest issue is their defense, specifically their complete inability to stop the run. The Bills have allowed a blistering 5.4 yards per carry, the second most in the NFL. They also rank 31st in opponent rush EPA and 27th in opponent rush success rate. Now, they have to take on an Eagles team that is seemingly hitting their stride of late, especially in the run game.

The Eagles have averaged 4.9 yards per carry over their last three games, which has served as a beautiful compliment to a defensive unit that has been one of the best in the league in the second half of the season. Not only are the Eagles a great time to invest in based on how they're playing of late, but the stylistic matchup in this game sways heavily in Philadelphia's favor.

Pick: Eagles +2.5 (-102) via FanDuel

Bears vs. 49ers Prediction

I'm willing to go down with the ship that the Bears aren't a good football team. Another week, another string of unbelievably good luck leading to them winning on the final play of the game. Jordan Love was hurt in the first half, and the Bears still found themselves down 10 points late in the game. A recovered onside kick later, and Chicago was able to force overtime, where they'd eventually win. Despite the win, the Bears are still ranked just 16th in total DVOA, and if you eliminate their takeaways, their defense is in the bottom 10 in virtually every metric.

The 49ers are the better team in most areas, and the Bears' luck is bound to run out sooner or later. I'll take the 49ers as slight home favorites.

Pick: 49ers -2.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Rams vs. Falcons Prediction

The Falcons have won their last two games, but we saw what happens to them two weeks ago when they took on one of the NFL's elite. They lost 37-9 to the Seattle Seahawks. Now they have to host the Los Angeles Rams, who are just as good as the Seahawks and may be even better suited to take advantage of the Falcons' shortcomings.

The Rams' biggest weakness was their special teams, which cost them more than one win this season, but they may improve in that area now that they've moved on from their special teams coordinator, Chase Blackburn. The Rams are in a big bounce-back spot, and I think they will overwhelm a Falcons team that's already looking toward the offseason.

Pick: Rams -8.5 (-115) via FanDuel

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