Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 18 Picks for Every Game

The 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets wraps up in Week 18.

NFL Week 18 best bets / Thomas Jr: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images, Dowdle: Grant Halverson/Getty Images, Henry: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images, Darnold: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The end of the road is here as the 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets will wrap up in Week 18. After a disastrous year, we're at least ending on a high note, stringing together back-to-back winning weeks, including a strong outing in Week 17. Let's make it three straight to close out the challenge.

Week 18 can be tricky to bet on, especially early in the week, as teams that are out of contention will sometimes keep their top players sidelined and roll out a lineup of backups and rookies. That means the odds could be significantly different later in the week compared to the lines I bet on Monday, so keep that in mind when reading this article and placing your bets.

With that out of the way, let's dive into my picks for all 16 games in the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season.

Road to 272 Bets Week 17 Record

• 11-5 (+5.1 units)

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

• 114-141-1 (-27 units)

NFL Week 18 Best Bets for Every Game

Panthers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL in the second half of the season, yet the betting market continues to set them as favorites, expecting the version of them that got off to a hot start will show up. This is a team that, since Week 8, ranks 24th in EPA per play, and they rank 28th in the league in Net Yards per Play throughout the season. The Panthers have been playing much better football and outrank the Bucs in almost every metric. I'm surprised Carolina is the underdog in this spot, so I'll back the Panthers to win on the moneyline and claim the NFC South.

Pick: Panthers +124 via FanDuel

Seahawks vs. 49ers Prediction

The 49ers showed exactly who they are on Sunday night against the Bears. Their offense is electric with Brock Purdy hitting his stride, and they have the ability to score every time they touch the ball. With that being said, their defense is truly horrific. Since Week 8, the 49ers are 26th in opponent EPA per play and 30th in opponent success rate. They're also 24th in opponent yards per play for the season, giving up 5.6 yards per snap.

Now, with the NFC West on the line, they have to face the best defense in the conference. The Seahawks lead the NFL in defensive DVOA, while the 49ers rank 26th. If the 49ers' offense can't find a way to move the ball at will against an elite defense, they're going to lose this game. I'll take the Seahawks as short road favorites.

Pick: Seahawks -1 (-110) via Caesars

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction

The Saints have become a legitimately good football team in the second half of the season, unfortunately, it's been too little too late for their playoff hopes. Since Week 10, their defense ranks second in opponent EPA and first in opponent success rate. Their offense has also been solid behind rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, ranking 19th in EPA per play and success rate since Week 10.

The Falcons are limping into the offseason behind several injuries, and despite beating the Saints a few weeks ago, New Orleans has hit its stride in recent games and will be a tougher challenge for Atlanta in the rematch. I'll take the points in what I expect to be a close game.

Pick: Saints +2.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Browns vs. Bengals Prediction

The Cincinnati Bengals have shown in recent weeks that they're going to pedal to the metal despite being eliminated from the postseason. The Bengals crushed two inferior opponents the past two weeks, beating the Dolphins by a score of 45-21 and cruising past the Cardinals by a score of 37-14. Now they'll face a Browns team that has been bad on the road all season. Their net yards per play decrease from +0.3 at home to -1.1 on the road. Their defense allows 0.8 more yards per play on the road, which is going to haunt them against the explosive Bengals' offense.

We won't see the Bengals in the postseason this year, but I think Cincinnati will go out on a high note.

Pick: Bengals -7 (-115) via DraftKings

Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction

I continue to struggle to lay points on this Cowboys team based on how bad their defense is. They're 31st in opponent EPA per play, dead last in opponent success rate, 31st in opponent yards per play, and last in defensive DVOA. That means that even if their talented offense gets a lead, their defense is bad enough to allow their opponent to get back in the mix, even a team as bad as the Giants. For that reason alone, I'll take the points with New York in this NFC East finale.

Pick: Giants +5.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Colts vs. Texans Prediction

The Texans' defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season, which makes you think the UNDER is the play, but the Colts' defense has been so bad in the second half of the season that I think it's best to zag instead of zig in this situation. Since Week 10, they're 23rd in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and 18th in opponent success rate. Meanwhile, the Texans' offense has been heating up and has managed to put up points against defenses far better than the Colts.

Based on the Colts' defensive performances lately, I don't think this total belongs in the 30s. I'll bet the OVER in this one.

Pick: IND/HOU OVER 39.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction

This game still means something for the Jaguars, who are attempting to lock up the AFC South, but I don't think that means they're deserving of being 13-point favorites in this spot. Their offense has exploded of late, putting up 24+ points in five of their last six games. To be fair, the game they didn't reach 24 points was a 25-3 loss to the Jaguars, but it's worth noting Cam Ward and Co. have been playing much better in the final stretch of the season. Their defense has also been better of late, including ranking 20th in opponent EPA and 17th in opponent success rate since Week 10.

There's enough there to justify a bet on the Titans getting 13 points.

Pick: Titans +13 (-120) via BetMGM

Packers vs. Vikings Prediction

The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC Playoffs, making this Week 18 game against the Vikings effectively meaningless. Jordan Love will be sidelined to hopefully make a playoff return, meaning Malik Willis will get another start, but is that necessarily a bad thing from a betting perspective? Willis looked phenomenal against the Ravens in Week 17, completing 85.7% of passes for 288 yards and a touchdown and adding 60 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Betting on Week 18 isn't as easy as picking against the side that's resting its starters. Whoever does suit up for this game will still be playing their hardest for selfish reasons if for nothing else. The Vikings aren't good enough to be 6.5-point favorites in this spot. I'll take the points with the underdog.

Pick: Packers +6.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction

The Los Angeles Chargers still have something to play for, but they've decided to rest Justin Herbert in their season finale. Even with that being the case, while I don't think the Broncos are a fraudulent team as I did earlier in the season, I still think the betting market is too high on them. They're seventh in the NFL in DVOA, which is right around where I rank them as well. That's not enough for them to be favorites of more than a touchdown against a fellow postseason team.

Teams have found success running the football against the Broncos at times this season as they rank 13th in opponent rush EPA, which fits in well with what the Chargers' game plan will be. The Los Angeles defense also doesn't get the credit it deserves. It now ranks sixth in opponent EPA per play on the season, above the Broncos, who come in at 10th. That's enough for me to take the points with the Chargers.

Pick: Chargers +7.5 (-109) via Caesars

Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction

It's hard to back a team in Week 18 that's actively hoping to lose this game to get a better draft pick. Sure, the players themselves will play their hardest, but by sitting a healthy Maxx Crosby for the final two weeks, it's clear the people who run this franchise want them to lose this game. The Chiefs have little to play for either, but at least they aren't actively hoping to lose.

Not only are the Raiders arguably the worst team in the league, but now their management is setting them up to lose. That's a scary duo for any bettor brave enough to back them with their money. Give me the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Jets vs. Bills Prediction

The Bills are going to want to avoid being the No. 7 seed in the playoffs, which means they need to take care of business against a lowly Jets team that has been horrific down the final stretch of the season. They are now 30th in offensive DVOA and 31st in defensive DVOA. They are the only team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom five in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They have nothing to offer to compete against this Bills team. I'll lay the points with Buffalo.

Pick: Bills -7.5 (-112) via DraftKings

Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction

The Eagles beat the Commanders 29-18 on the road two weeks ago, and not only did they win by margin, but they also had a Net Yards per Play metric of +1.5 in that game. I continue to buy in on the Eagles, who, despite a slow middle part of the season, have played themselves out of the dip and are now trending in the right direction. They're third in the league in Net Yards per Play over the past three games at +1.4. Their defense has become an elite unit, and their offense has been able to run the ball successfully.

The Eagles are still battling for the No. 2 seed in the NFC, so they have enough to play for to cruise past the Commanders in this one.

Pick: Eagles -7.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Lions vs. Bears Prediction

It's time to accept the fact that the Lions just don't have "it" this year. Whether it's just been bad luck, injuries, or the failure to properly replace their offensive and defensive coordinators from last year, or a mixture of all three, something is missing from the Lions. Meanwhile, the Bears, led by the Lions' past offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, have been a phenomenal team this year. Their defense struggles when they can't force turnovers, but their offense is on another level. Since Week 8, their offense ranks sixth in the league in both EPA per play and success rate.

With the Bears still fighting for the No. 2 seed in the conference, they'll likely come out swinging in this one. I'll lay the 2.5 points with Chicago.

Pick: Bears -2.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Cardinals vs. Rams Prediction

Sean McVay has been known to rest his starters when he can, even if it means sacrificing a higher wild-card seed in the playoffs. As of writing this article on Monday, it has yet to be announced how he plans on playing his starters in Week 18, but if you think there's a strong chance he does rest a handful, jump on the Cardinals at +9.5 when you can. The line will drop if the likes of Matthew Stafford and Puka Nakua see limited, if any, action in Week 18.

The Cardinals have been terrible this season, but they still have enough talent to cover a 9.5-point spread if the Rams play their backups. The Cardinals rank 24th in net yards per play this season at -0.5.

Pick: Cardinals +9.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction

With the Los Angeles Chargers resting Justin Herbert, the Patriots' path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC is going to be nearly impossible, as they'd need the Broncos to lose as massive favorites to a Herbert-less Chargers. That could lead Mike Vrabel to be convinced to rest his starters for at least a portion of their game against the Dolphins.

Even if they don't rest starters, I still like Miami getting 11 points in this spot. The Dolphins' season didn't go as planned, but they don't belong to the group of truly bad teams this season. They're 21st in both net yards per play and total DVOA, meaning they certainly have the capability to keep the score within single digits.

Let's also not forget the Patriots have some defensive issues, ranking just 25th in defensive DVOA. There's not enough there to convince me to lay 11 points on the Patriots.

Pick: Dolphins +11 (-110) via BetMGM

Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction

The Steelers let an opportunity to clinch the AFC North slip through their grasp last week, but I still have confidence they're going to have a real shot to defeat the Ravens in Week 18. Baltimore may be without Lamar Jackson again as he's nursing a back injury, and the Ravens as a whole aren't the elite team some people think they are, even with Jackson healthy. This season, the Ravens rank 13th in total DVOA and 12th in net yards per play.

The Steelers just beat the Ravens in Baltimore a few short weeks ago while outgaining them 6.2 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play. Now they're 3.5-point home underdogs with Jackson questionable? That doesn't seem right to me. Give me the points with Pittsburgh.

Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-113) via Caesars

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