Road to Super Bowl 60: NFL Conference Championship Sunday Picks for Both Games

There are just three NFL games left for us to watch and bet on before we have to deal with a long offseason, so let's make the most of it and place some bets on this weekend's Championship Sunday.

There are just four teams left in contention for the Lombardi Trophy. The New England Patriots will face the Bo Nix-less Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship, and then the Los Angeles Rams will face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West rubber match in the NFC Championship.

I have my bets for each game locked in, so let's dive into them.

NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction

There are plenty of smart people out there who think setting the Patriots as 5-point favorites is too big a reaction to the Bo Nix injury news. A lot of Nix's metrics didn't pop off the page, so is a 7-point swing justified with a capable Jarrett Stidham playing instead? I think it is, but it's not just because of the change at quarterback. There is something to be said about Nix's ability to be clutch and come up with plays in big moments, something Stidham doesn't have, but I'm backing New England more so because of what I've seen from the Patriots lately.

The New England defense may have figured something out. The argument against them heading into the postseason was that their defense was one of the worst in the NFL, but they completely shut down both the Chargers and Texans. Not only keeping them from scoring, but finding ways to force turnovers. In fact, they've allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their past three games, the lowest in the NFL.

We already know the Patriots have a significant advantage offensively, and even moreso with Nix out, but if the New England defense can continue its momentum, there's a chance the Patriots run away with this one.

Pick: Patriots -5 (-110) via Caesars

Rams vs. Seahawks Prediction

This game is a matchup between the top two teams in DVOA, and just three points separated them in both previous meetings, with each team winning once. For the rubber match, I'm going to lay the 2.5 points on the Seahawks.

We haven't seen the best version of the Rams since their Week 15 win against the Lions. In fact, they finished the season on a 3-3 run with losses to the likes of the Panthers and Falcons. They also barely scraped both the Panthers and Bears in the first two rounds of the playoffs, teams that are far less talented than the Rams. They were outgained by Chicago, 5.1 yards per play to 4.4 yards per play.

Dating back to Week 13, the Rams' defense has ranked just 18th in opponent yards per play.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won eight straight games and looked as impressive as ever in the divisional round against the 49ers. Their defense leads the NFL in opponent EPA per play and is second in opponent success rate since Week 13.

Keep an eye on special teams, an area in which the Seahawks have a huge advantage over the Rams. They rank second in special teams DVOA, while the Rams rank 26th. If you don't think it matters, just remember the last time these two teams met when a punt return touchdown by the Seahawks sparked their comeback, resulting in a win.

The Seahawks have the momentum, the home-field advantage, and the better special teams. Give me Seattle to cover.

Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!