Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for Tuesday's First Four Games

Texas will face NC State in the First Four. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

March Madness is officially here, and the 68 teams competing in the 2026 edition of the NCAA Tournament have been selected.

For the past number of years, I've bet on a side or total for every single game, and I plan to do the same this year. 67 games, 67 bets starting with this week's First Four matchups on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Let's start with those four games. It's time to dive into my first four bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

College Basketball Best Bets for First Four Games

UMBC vs. Howard Prediction

Howard is a great defensive team, but its shooting is going to be a problem. The Bison rank just 212th in effective field goal percentage, far below UMBC, which comes in at 72nd in that metric. Meanwhile, UMBC can match Howard defensively, ranking 45th in defensive efficiency.

Howard also ranks in the top 100 in the country in two-point shot rate, but now they have to face a tough UMBC front court. The Retrievers keep teams to shooting 49.7% from two-point range.

Howard also has a significant turnover problem, ranking 341st in turnovers per possession, coughing it up on 19.2% of their possessions. UMBC ranks 28th in that metric. If the Retrievers win the turnover battle, they're going to be in a great spot to win this game.

Pick: UMBC -1.5 (+102) via DraftKings

Texas vs. NC State Prediction

Both these teams are better offensively than defensively, and they also both have great offensive matchups ahead of them. They rank 35th and 62nd in effective field goal percentage, while also ranking 209th and 245th in defensive efficiency.

NC State ranks in the top 100 in three-point shot rate, and now the Wolfpack gets to face a Texas defense that ranks 299th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 36% from beyond the arc.

Texas leans more toward two-point shots, while NC State ranks 226th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 52.8% from two-point range.

Let's bet the OVER in this SEC vs. ACC showdown.

Pick: OVER 158.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh Prediction

To me, Lehigh seems like the far superior team in this matchup. Lehigh ranks 91st in the country in effective field goal percentage, and they get to face a Prairie View team that ranks 315th in that metric. Defensively, these two teams rank right next to each other in defensive efficiency.

The shooting alone is enough for me to back the Mountain Hawks. If the Panthers are one of the worst shooting teams in the country while facing Southwestern Athletic competition, I don't think they're going to be able to compete in this game.

Pick: Lehigh -3.5 (-110) via Caesars

Miami (Ohio) vs. SMU Prediction

As deserving as Miami is to get into the NCAA Tournament for having an undefeated regular season, the RedHawks' haters are unfortunately correct. Their underlying numbers aren't nearly as good as you'd imagine from a team that was 31-0. They rank just 101st in defensive efficiency and 261st in effective possession ratio.

Now, they have to face an SMU team that's 27th in effective field goal percentage and 175th in defensive efficiency while facing far tougher competition in the ACC.

It's time to sell your Miami stock.

Pick: SMU -6.5 (-115) via DraftKings

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