Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for 1st-Round Games

March Madness is officially here! The appetizers, also known as the First Four, are in the rear-view mirror, which means we have matchups set for all 32 games in the Round of 64.

For the past few years, I've bet on a side or total in every single March Madness game. 67 games, 67 bets. I'm doing it again this year, and despite a rough start with the First Four games, I'm ready to go with the Round of 64.

Let's take a look at all 32 of my bets for Thursday and Friday.

March Madness Best Bets for Every First Round Game

TCU vs. Ohio State Prediction

TCU is an underrated team coming into the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs finished sixth in the best conference in college basketball this season. They have wins over the likes of Wisconsin, Florida, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, proving they can not only hang with the best teams in the country but also beat them out.

Ohio State has been playing some great basketball down the stretch, but the Buckeyes rank just 174th in defensive efficiency, which is a red flag when it comes to facing a TCU team that ranks 47th in that metric, despite having to play some of the best offenses in the country.

The better defensive team that played in the better conference, getting 2.5 points seems like the right bet to place.

Pick: TCU +2.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Troy vs. Nebraska Prediction

I do not doubt that Nebraska will win this game, and I've picked them to advance in my bracket, but when it comes to covering a 13.5-point spread, I hesitate to lay that number. Instead, I'm going to bet the UNDER in this game.

The two teams in this game rank inside the top 55 in the country in three-point shot rate, but they also both do a great job of defending the perimeter. Nebraska ranks seventh in the country in opponent three-point field goal percentage, while Troy ranks 43rd. The Cornhuskers also rank 17th in the country in defensive efficiency.

It's also worth noting that both teams play at a slow pace. Nebraska is 218th in adjusted tempo, and Troy ranks near the bottom in college basketball at 309.

Pick: UNDER 138.5 (-110) via Caesars

South Florida vs. Louisville Prediction

There are plenty of signs that point toward South Florida vs. Louisville being a high-scoring affair. Let's start with the stylistic advantage that both offenses have. Louisville ranks fourth in the country in three-point shot rate, while USF ranks 92nd in that category. That said, neither team has defended the perimeter well. They both rank outside the top 100 in college basketball in opponent three-point field goal percentage.

Both teams also play at a fast pace. South Florida is second amongst all NCAA Tournament teams in adjusted tempo, and Louisville is 17th. Let's hope the pace and lack of perimeter defense turn this game into a track meet.

Pick: OVER 163.5 (-115) via FanDuel

High Point vs. Wisconsin Prediction

High Point is a scary team for any high major to face in the first round. They went 15-1 in Big South play and tore through the out-of-conference portion of their schedule. They enter the Round of 64 ranking 48th in the country in effective field goal percentage and 33rd in defensive efficiency.

To beat Wisconsin, you have to defend the perimeter well; the Badgers have the sixth-highest three-point shot rate in the country. Thankfully, the Panthers do exactly that, ranking 64th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 31.9% from beyond the arc.

Don't underestimate High Point. I'll back them getting 10 points.

Pick: High Point +10 (-110) via Caesars

Siena vs. Duke Prediction

Duke is a near-perfect basketball team, and it's hard to imagine how Sienna would manage to keep this game within the spread. Duke is 13th in effective field goal percentage, second in defensive efficiency, and 24th in effective possession ratio. By comparison, Siena is 214th, 49th, and 118th in those three metrics while playing against much tougher competition in the ACC.

To make matters worse for Siena, they hardly ever shoot the three-ball, so they're going to try to attack the interior of the Duke defense, which is exactly where the Blue Devils' strength lies, keeping teams to shooting juts 46.6% from two-point range.

This is a disastrous matchup for Siena.

Pick: Duke -27.5 (-110) via Caesars

McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Prediction

McNeese may have been a great upset pick if the Cowboys had played against a team that dealt with a turnover problem. The Cowboys lead the nation in opponent turnovers per possession. Unfortunately for them, Vanderbilt is one of the very best teams in not turning the ball over, ranking 10th in the country in turnovers per possession, turning it over just 13% of the time they have the ball.

Vanderbilt truly has no weak point. ranking 36th in effective field goal percentage, while McNeese ranks just 196th against much weaker competition.

Let's also remember that Vanderbilt tore through the out-of-conference portion of their schedule, entering SEC play with an undefeated 13-0 record, while completely dismantling most mid-major teams they faced.

Let's lay the points on Vanderbilt in this one.

Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 (-110) via BetMGM

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction

I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. The metrics between these two teams aren't far off. Michigan State ranks 81st in the country in effective field goal percentage, but North Dakota State is right behind them at 86th. The Spartans are also 43rd in defensive efficiency, but once again, the Bison are close behind them at 58th.

North Dakota State can also shut down one of Michigan State's biggest strengths, their offensive rebounding, as the Bison rank 17th in defensive rebounding rate

Obviously, there's more context to these metrics, as Michigan State played against a far tougher list of opponents coming from the Big Ten, but there's enough there for me to trust the Bison to cover this big number.

Pick: North Dakota State +16 (-110) via Caesars

Hawaii vs. Arkansas Prediction

It's time to respect the Big West. Hawaii is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking eighth in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponent two-point field goal percentage. That's going to be a huge advantage against an Arkansas team that ranks 202nd in defensive efficiency while also having one of the highest two-point shot rates in the country.

It's not rare to see a team that went on a dark horse run to win their conference tournament to fall short early in the NCAA Tournament. The Razorbacks would fit that bill after going on an unlikely run to win the SEC.

Hawaii is my favorite upset pick in the Round of 64. Take the points if you want, but I'm calling my shot.

Pick: Hawaii +920 via FanDuel

VCU vs. UNC Prediction

I haven't been a believer in UNC all season long. The Tar Heels have put up middling numbers in a subpar year for the ACC, and are riding a midseason win against Duke into the NCAA Tournament. VCU has proven it belongs in the conversation in this tournament, ranking 67th in effective field goal percentage, 61st in defensive efficiency, and 66th in effective possession ratio.

Now only that, but the Rams rank inside the top 100 in three-point shot attempts, which will be important against a Tar Heels team that has struggled to defend the perimeter all season long.

Give me the points with the Rams on Thursday.

Pick: VCU +2.5 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Howard vs. Michigan Prediction

It's a big spread to lay, but I'm still going to back Michigan to cover the spread. The Howard Bison rarely shoot 3-point shots, ranking in the top 100 in two-point shot rate. That's disastrous news for them now that they have to take on a Michigan defense that's fourth in the country in opponent two-point field goal percentage.

Howard also ranks 334th in the country in turnovers per possession. If the Bison turn the ball over at a high clip against Michigan, the Wolverines are going to be in a great spot to run up the score and cover this big spread.

Pick: Michigan -30.5 (-113) via BetRivers

Texas vs. BYU Prediction

Both Texas and BYU's strategies revolve around one player: Texas has Dailyn Swain and BYU has AJ Dybantsa. With that in mind, the smart strategy is likely just to back the team with the better star player, which is the Cougars with Dybantsa, who is leading the country in scoring, averaging 25.3 points per game.

Texas also has plenty of defensive issues, ranking 232nd in defensive efficiency. That's far below BYU, which comes in at 114th in that metric. Texas typically has a shooting advantage over most teams, but that's not the case in this game either. The Cougars are 51st in effective field goal percentage, compared to Texas at 72nd.

I'm going to back BYU as a slight favorite.

Pick: BYU -2.5 (+100) via FanDuel

Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's Prediction

Saint Mary's always disappoints in the NCAA Tournament, failing to make it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight appearances. Gonzaga being in that conference has caused the other teams in the West Coast Conference to be overhyped, including the Gaels.

Texas A&M is better than its record indicates. The Aggies rank 63rd in the country in effective field goal percentage and 152nd in defensive efficiency, all while playing in an extremely deep SEC. They also rank 55th in effective possession ratio, finding ways to create extra scoring chances through rebounding and turnovers.

The Gaels will disappoint in the Round of 64 once again.

Pick: Texas A&M +3.5 (-110) via TheScore Bet

Penn vs. Illinois Prediction

Illinois has one of the highest three-point shot rates in the country, ranking 12th in that stat with 50.7% of its shots coming from three-point range. That feeds right into Pennsylvania's defensive strength. The Quakers rank 57th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 31.7% from three-point range.

Pennsylvania also plays disciplined basketball, ranking 84th in the country in effective possession ratio.

Illinois will win this game, but the Quakers play the right style of basketball to keep this game within the spread.

Pick: Penn +25.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Saint Louis vs. Georgia Prediction

Saint Louis has great shooting and defensive numbers, but the Billikens have some reason issues when it comes to turnovers, ranking 235th in opponent turnovers per possession. That's bad news against a Georgia team that ranks 81st in opponent turnovers per possession.

Georgia was an underrated team in the regular season, ranking 55th in effective field goal percentage and 108th in defensive efficiency.

I'll back Georgia in this Round of 64 showdown.

Pick: Georgia -2.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga Prediction

I'm not going to claim that Kennesaw State is going to pull off a massive upset in this spot, but there are some things in this matchup that work in their advantage. First of all, Gonzaga leans on its front court, rarely shooting three-point shots. That plays right into Kennesaw State's defense, which ranks 29th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 47% from two-point range.

The Owls also rank 64th in the country in effective possession ratio, which will hopefully help them keep the score in this game somewhat in check.

Pick: Kennesaw State +21.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Idaho vs. Houston Prediction

I have some concerns surrounding Houston's shooting when it comes to cover this massive spread. The Cougars rank just 142nd in the country in effective field goal percentage.

Idaho also has a favorable stylistic matchup. The Vandals rank 34th in the country in three-point shot rate, which lines up with Houston's defensive vulnerability. Teams struggle to drive to the rim against the Cougars, but some have found success attacking the perimeter.

Idaho also ranks fourth in defensive rebounding and 59th in turnovers per possession. If they can prevent Houston from getting extra scoring chances, they're going to be in a great spot to cover this spread.

Pick: Idaho +24.5 (-110) via TheScore Bet

Santa Clara vs. Kentucky Prediction

I'm not a believer in Santa Clara. All West Coast Conference teams not named Gonzaga have continuously disappointed in the NCAA Tournament over the years, and the Broncos haven't shown me any reason to think this year will be different. Santa Clara ranks just 53rd in effective field goal percentage and 93rd in defensive efficiency.

Not only that, but Santa Clara is primarily a three-point shooting team, and now they have to face a Wildcats team that's 50th in the country in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shoot 31.6% from beyond the arc.

I'll believe it when I see it with Santa Clara.

Pick: Kentucky -3 (-110) via Caesars

Akron vs. Texas Tech Prediction

You can put aside the fact that Texas Tech is already missing its best player, JT Toppin, and focus on the fact that they have some red flags when looking through their overall metrics. For example, the Red Raiders rank just 131st in defensive efficiency and 132nd in turnovers per possession.

Heading into this tournament, the talk of the MAC has been Miami Ohio and its perfect regular season, but I think the attention will shift to the Akron Zips, who have some ultra-impressive numbers heading into the Round of 64. Akron is eighth in effective field goal percentage and 88th in defensive efficiency. They're also 41st in rebounding percentage, which could lead to some extra scoring chances throughout the game.

I'm going to take points with the champions of the MAC in this one.

Pick: Akron +7.5 (-105) via FanDuel

LIU vs. Arizona Prediction

There's no arguing that Arizona is the far better team and will win this game with ease, but I'm not quite ready to lay 30.5 points on them. The Sharks have been a solid team on both sides of the court this season, ranking 90th in effective field goal percentage and 74th in defensive efficiency while dominating the NEC.

LIU also ranks in the top 60 in the country in both offensive rebounding and opponent turnovers per possession. If they can create some extra scoring chances for themselves, they're going to have a chance to cover this spread.

Pick: LIU +30.5 (-102) via FanDuel

Wright State vs. Virginia Prediction

This is a bad stylistic matchup for Wright State. The Raiders have the 61st-highest two-point shot rate in college basketball, and now they have to face a Virginia team that shuts down their opponent's interior offense. Virginia keeps teams to shooting just 44.7% from two-point range.

Defensively, Wright State ranks 186th in defensive efficiency, so if they can't find a way to score on offense, they don't have the ability on defense to keep them in this game.

I'll lay the points with Virginia.

Pick: Virginia -18.5 (-105) via BetMGM

Tennessee State vs. Iowa State Prediction

I love this Iowa State Cyclones team, and I think they're built to pull away from inferior opponents. Not only do they rank near the top of all tournament teams in shooting and defensive efficiency, but they force turnovers at a to-five rate, which leads to extra scoring chances. Tennessee State turns the ball over on 16.1% of its possessions, and that came against far inferior opponents. If the Cyclones can force a ton of turnovers on Friday, Iowa State is going to win this game running away.

The Tigers rank 232nd in the country in effective field goal percentage. That's not nearly good enough to keep pace with Iowa State.

Pick: Iowa State -24.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Hofstra vs. Alabama Prediction

Hofstra got an unlucky draw in the opening round. If the Pride could play against a team that largely relies on two-point shots, they'd have a chance of pulling off a first-round upset. Instead, they have to face the team with the highest three-point shot rate in the country. That means Alabama is going to be able to attack the weakness of the Pride, a team that ranks outside the top 100 in opponent three-point field goal percentage.

I also don't think Hofstra has the shooting to keep pace with Alabama. The Pride rank just 177th in effective field goal percentage, well below Alabama at 33rd.

I'll lay the points with the Crimson Tide.

Pick: Alabama -11.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Utah State vs. Villanova Prediction

San Diego State three years ago was an exception, but the Mountain West has historically struggled in the NCAA Tournament. Let's fade the only Mountain West team in this year's edition of the tournament by betting on the Villanova Wildcats to upset them at +117.

UConn and St. John's were the talk of the Big East this season, and while Villanova may not be on their level, they are still a very good team and were a step above the rest of the conference this season. They're 76th in effective field goal percentage and 90th in defensive efficiency.

When the Wildcats get hot from three, they're tough to beat. Utah State ranks just 178th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 33.9% from beyond the arc.

Pick: Villanova +110 via TheScore Bet

Miami Ohio vs. Tennessee Prediction

Tennessee is a terrible matchup for Miami Ohio. The Volunteers' defense has the ability to completely smother the Miami offense, ranking 40th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 30.6% from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, the RedHawks' defense ranks 177th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, which will set up Tennessee's front court to have a huge day.

I'll lay the points on the Volunteers to end Miami Ohio's magical season.

Pick: Tennessee -11.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Iowa vs. Clemson Prediction

The total in this game is the lowest we'll see the entire tournament, but that's not going to scare me away from betting the UNDER. Iowa plays at the second-lowest pace of play in the NCAA Tournament, and Clemson plays at the fourth-lowest pace of play. Compared to all Division 1 teams, they rank 333rd and 357th in adjusted tempo.

The UNDER is also going to be aided by Clemson's strong defense, ranking 41st in the country in defensive efficiency. Both teams also rank in the top 100 in the country in opponent Floor%, keeping teams to scoring at least one point on fewer than 49% of possessions.

Give me the UNDER on Friday.

Pick: UNDER 129.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Northern Iowa vs. Saint John's Prediction

Northern Iowa plays more of a Saint John's style of basketball than Saint John's does. The Panthers rank last in adjusted tempo amongst all tournament teams, and their top 10-ranking in defensive efficiency is going to give the Red Storm some headaches.

On top of that, Saint John's has experienced some shooting issues at times this season and currently rank 193rd in effective field goal percentage. That's well below Northern Iowa, which ranks 64th.

A low-paced defensive game is going to make it tough for Saint John's to cover a double-digit spread.

Pick: UNI +10.5 (-117) via BetRivers

UCF vs. UCLA Prediction

Both teams in this game rank inside the top 120 in the country in effective field goal percentage, and they also have favorable offensive matchups. The two teams rank 80th and 111th in two-point shot rate, but neither team does a good job defending the interior.

The two teams rank 224th and 247th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to score at will from two-point range.

Finally, UCF rank 79th in the country in adjusted tempo, which could lead to this being a fast-paced game.

Let's sit back and root for points in this Big 12 vs. Big Ten showdown.

Pick: OVER 152.5 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Queens vs. Purdue Prediction

Let's sell high on a Purdue team that got hot at the right time in the Big Ten Tournament, but has some concerning issues as a whole. The Boilermakers rank 161st in defensive efficiency and 197th in opponent three-point field goal percentage. That's key against a Queens team that ranks 35th in three-point shot rate and 67th in three-point field goal percentage, shooting 35.9% from beyond the arc.

Queens has some defensive issues of their own, but I'm banking on their shooting being good enough to keep the final score within 25.

Pick: Queens +25.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Prairie View A&M vs. Florida Prediction

Florida is the biggest favorite in NCAA Tournament history at 35.5-points, and I can't get there when it comes to laying that many points. Prairie View A&M did something to adjust their defense in the final stretch of the season, and the results have been magical. Not only that, but the interior of their defense is their biggest strength, ranking 81st in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 49.4% from two-point range.

That's going to prove to be important against a Florida team that struggles on the perimeter.

If the Panthers can slow down the front court of Florida while getting some shots to drop on offense, they have a strong chance to keep this game with 35 points.

Pick: Prairie View A&M +35.5 (-110) via FanDuel

California Baptist vs. Kansas Prediction

California Baptist is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, so I'm surprised the Kansas Jayhawks aren't bigger favorites in this spot. The Lancers have an effective field goal percentage of 48.6%, which ranks 301st in the country.

California Baptist leans on its defense to win games, but have the Lancers had to face a player as skilled and talented as Darryn Peterson?

The Lancers also rarely shoot the three-ball, relying on two-point shots. Now, they have to try to score against one of the best defensive front courts in the nation. Kansas ranks sixth in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 44.7% from two-point range.

I won't hesitate to lay the 14 points on the Jayhawks.

Pick: Kansas -14 (-110) via Caesars

Furman vs. UConn Prediction

Don't let losing the Big East Tournament Final fool you into thinking that UConn isn't an elite team. They rank 34th in the country in effective field goal percentage and 14th in defensive efficiency. Not only that, but they rank 16th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 30.3% from beyond the arc. That's extremely important when facing a Furman team that ranks 40th in three-point shot rate.

Furman also has a turnover problem, ranking 264th in turnovers per possession. If the Huskies can force turnovers and create extra scoring chances, they're going to be in a great spot to run away with the win in this game.

Pick: UConn -20.5 (-102) via FanDuel

Missouri vs. Miami Prediction

Missouri and Miami have some similarities, but I think it's the Tigers who are more battle-tested, coming out of a deep SEC, and also have a stylistic advantage in this game. Both teams rank in the top 40 in effective field goal percentage, and both squads also lean on two-point shots, but it's the Tigers that do a better job of defending the interior.

The Hurricanes rank 128th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, while Missouri ranks 63rd. For that reason, I'll back the Tigers to win outright as slight underdogs.

Pick: Missouri +112 via FanDuel

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