Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for Sunday's 2nd-Round Games

We still have one more day of March Madness action before we can take a breath and regroup ahead of the Sweet 16! There are eight Round of 32 games set to take place on Sunday, which gives us eight games to bet on.

As I've been doing throughout the tournament, I have a bet placed for every single matchup. Let's dive into my plays for today's second round action.

March Madness Best Bets for Every Round of 32 Game on Sunday

Miami vs. Purdue Prediction

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Both Miami and Purdue rank inside the top 50 in the country in effective field goal percentage, but Miami has the far better defensive numbers. The Hurricanes rank 52nd in defensive efficiency, while the Boilermakers come in at 157th.

Not only that, but Miami ranks 36th in the country in two-point shot rate, with 67.4% of its shots coming from two-point range. Now, they face a Purdue team that allows its opponents to shoot 53.3% from two-point range, which ranks 245th in college basketball.

I'll jump at the chance to bet on Miami getting 7.5 points.

Pick: Miami +7.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction

We don't yet know if Joshua Jefferson is going to be able to play in today's game against Kentucky, but even if he doesn't, I love Iowa State in this spot.

The Cyclones don't get the respect they deserve as a truly elite team in this country. They rank 16th in effective field goal percentage and fourth in defensive efficiency, but what's even more impressive is that they rank fourth in extra scoring chances per game, averaging +7.2. Those extra chances give Iowa State a significant advantage over its opponents.

The Wildcats are a solid team, but they rank 90th in effective field goal percentage and 109th in defensive efficiency. They don't have what it takes to hang with Iowa State in the Round of 32.

Pick: Iowa State -4.5 (-110) via BetMGM

St. John's vs. Kansas Prediction

The worst team for St. John's to face is one that can defend the interior at an elite level. The second game between St. John's and UConn this season proved that point, as the Huskies shut down everything within two-point range, and the Red Storm had no answer. St. John's doesn't shoot the three-ball often, and when they do, they're not good at it, sporting a three-point field goal percentage of just 33.3%.

The bad news for St. John's is they now have to face one of the best best interior defenses in college basketball. The Jayhawks allow teams to shoot just 44.5% from two-point range, which is the fourth best mark in the country. That, paired with the fact St. John's already ranks just 189th in effective field goal percentage, is bad news for the Red Storm.

Pick: Kansas +3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction

I don't know if there's any other bet to place in this game other than the UNDER. These two teams are similar in a lot of areas. Tennessee focuses on two-point shots while Virginia leans on three-point shots, but both teams are defensive powerhouses that play at a relatively slow pace. Virginia and Tennessee rank 271st and 306th in adjusted tempo. When comparing to the rest of the NCAA Tournament field, they play at the sixth and ninth slowest paces.

The Volunteers rank 35th in two-point shot rate, with 68.2% of their shots coming from two-point range. Now, they face a Virginia team fifth in opponent two-point field goal percentage (44.6%). Virginia ranks 37th in three-point shot rate, while Tennessee ranks 18th in opponent three-point field goal percentage (30.3%).

I'm willing to bet on this game being a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 137.5 (-110) via Caesars

Iowa vs. Florida Prediction

This is a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes. The key to beating Florida is being able to slow down their elite front court, but the Hawkeyes don't have the size or the tools to do so, evidenced by them ranking 271st in opponent two-point field goal percentage (53.8%) and 119th in rebounding percentage.

Florida is going to eventually run into a team that's going to give them fits, but the Gators' defense and front court are too good for the Hawkeyes to handle. I'll lay the points with the Gators in this one.

Pick: Florida -10.5 (-105) via BetMGM

Utah State vs. Arizona Prediction

There's going to be a team in this tournament that's going to give Arizona a run for its money, but it's not Utah State. Let's not forget that outside of a deep run by San Diego State a few years back, the Mountain West has largely disappointed in the NCAA Tournament.

Utah State's underlying metrics are impressive, but we have to take into considering their level of competition this season. They didn't play a single power conference team in the regular season, while suffering a 15-point loss to South Florida from the American Conference in December.

Arizona has few to no flaws. There's a reason they're the current betting favorites to win the National Championship. They can shoot, play defense, and they create +3.6 extra scoring chances per game.

The Wildcats are on a different level compared to the Aggies, and they'll prove that on Sunday.

Pick: Arizona -11.5 (-115) via BetMGM

UCLA vs. UConn Prediction

There's no denying that UConn hasn't had its best stuff lately. A late-season loss to a bad Marquette team, not being competitive in the Big East Tournament final against St. John's, and then not being able to completely pull away for Furman in the opening round. With that being said, I think it's time to buy low on the Huskies. Their overall numbers this season are still impressive, ranking 34th in effective field goal percentage and 15th in defensive efficiency. Compare that to UCLA, which ranks 82nd and 124th in those two metrics.

The Huskies interior defense will also help them in this game. They keep teams to shooting just 45.9% from two-point range, which will go a long way in slowing down a UCLA offense that leans on two-point shots.

I think we're getting a nice discount on the Huskies based on recent performances. I have no problem laying the 4.5 points in this spot.

Pick: UConn -4.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Texas Tech vs. Alabama Prediction

Texas Tech has proven that they can still win big games against big teams with JT Toppin sidelined, and I like them in this spot against Alabama quite a bit. Both teams have a lot of similarities; they're both elite shooting teams who rely on three-point shots, but have also struggled on defense at times.

With that being said, Texas Tech has the far better perimeter defense, which is going to play a big role in this game. The Red Raiders rank 40th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 31.3% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Alabama ranks 173rd in that metric, allowing teams to shoot 33.9% from three-point range.

That's enough for me to back Texas Tech in what's set as a coin-flip game.

Pick: Texas Tech -110 via FanDuel

Get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets when you create a new BetMGM Sportsbook account. Use our exclusive bonus code for BetMGM ‘SI1500’, make a minimum $10 deposit, and place your first bet. If you lose, you will receive your full wager back in the form of bonus bets.

Using the same code in MI, NJ, PA, or WV will unlock a ‘bet $10, get $150 in bonus bets if you win’ offer.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!