Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Thunder vs. Spurs Western Conference Finals Game 6

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey is betting on every NBA game this postseason. Here’s a breakdown of his best bet for Game 6 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target in Game 6. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

A trip to the NBA Finals is one the line on Thursday night, as the Oklahoma City Thunder need just one more win to advance past the San Antonio Spurs and into their second straight Finals. 

San Antonio is favored at home in this matchup, and Victor Wembanyama and company are looking to force a Game 7 after they dominated OKC in their last home game (Game 4) to even this series. 

NBA history suggests that the Thunder will eventually advance in this matchup, as teams that won Game 5 in a best-of-seven series that was tied 2-2 went on to win the series 82% of the time (198-44 series record). 

Still, that doesn’t mean that OKC will wrap things up in Game 6. 

There are a ton of ways to bet on NBA postseason games, and I’ve taken on the challenge of betting on every game throughout the 2026 postseason in my “Road to the NBA Finals” column: 

• Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
• Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
• ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

In Game 6, I’m taking a player prop that has hit in four of the five games in this series and has been one of the more reliable bets all postseason. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-146)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying SGA in the assists market in Game 6: 

This postseason, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone to another level as a playmaker.

After averaging 6.6 assists per game in the regular season, Shai is now averaging 8.2 assists per game in the playoffs, recording 15.4 potential assists per game. 

Teams have thrown double teams at him, and the Spurs have really stacked the paint to stop him, yet he continues to make the right reads. 

In this series. SGA is averaging 9.8 assists per game, clearing this line in four of the five matchups. He had nine dimes in Game 5, and he only fell short of this total (finishing with seven assists) in Game 4 with the Spurs holding OKC to just 82 points and most of the Thunder team struggling to make shots.

Even though the two-time MVP is known for his scoring, I think his passing has been very underrated this postseason, and the prop market hasn’t fully adjusted. In fact, SGA has 12, nine, 12, seven and nine dimes in this series, so I’d even consider betting this line at 8.5.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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