Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks Lakers-Thunder, Cavs-Pistons on Tuesday

A pair of conference semifinal matchups begin on Tuesday night, and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are massive favorites to beat the Los Angeles Lakers and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second season in a row.

OKC opens as a 15.5-point favorite in Game 1 with Luka Doncic (hamstring) still sidelined for L.A.. LeBron James and company shocked the Houston Rockets and pulled off an upset in the first round, but they were aided by a Kevin Durant injury that cost him five of the six games in the series.

In the Eastern Conference, two teams coming off Game 7s on Sunday open their second-round matchup on Tuesday. The No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons completed the 15th 3-1 comeback in NBA history, knocking off the Orlando Magic while the Cleveland Cavaliers moved to 4-0 at home this postseason in a Game 7 win over Toronto.

Unlike the Lakers-Thunder series, Cavs-Pistons is a true toss up in the latest betting odds, though the Pistons are slight favorites at -125 to advance.

So, how should we bet on these Game 1s?

If you haven’t been following along – welcome! Because, this postseason, I’m betting on every NBA Playoff game, a fun way to stay engaged on the Road to the NBA Finals.

The rules of the challenge are pretty simple:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

For Tuesday’s series openers, I’m eyeing one side and one player prop, as both No. 1 seeds look to get off to strong starts.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Cavs are a great underdog bet in Game 1:

Cleveland didn’t have a great series against Toronto, going to seven games even though Immanuel Quickley missed the entire series and Brandon Ingram sat out the majority of the final three games.

Despite that, I’m buying the Cavs on the road in Game 1.

Cleveland is 8-5 against the spread as a road underdog this season, and the Cavs have a far better offense than Detroit, which was 11th out of 16 teams in the first round of the playoffs. Cade Cunningham had a big series and Tobias Harris finished with four straight 20-point games, but the Pistons didn’t get much from anyone else the entire series against Orlando.

Cleveland, which had the No. 6 offense in the NBA during the regular season, averaged nearly 112 points per game in the first round and is a much better team than Orlando that will capitalize on shaky offensive stretches from the Pistons.

The Cavs aren’t nearly as good defensively, but Orlando still stole three games from Detroit despite posting an offensive rating of 101.9 in the first round (dead last in the playoffs).

With this spread set just outside one possession, I like the Cavs to cover on Tuesday night.

Austin Reaves UNDER 21.5 Points (-107)

Austin Reaves had 22 points in his first game back in the lineup for the Lakers against Houston, but he was held to 15 points in Game 6 – even though L.A. won.

Now, Reaves has to take on the No. 1 defense in the NBA that will have Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and others in his grill all night long in Game 1.

I think the UNDER is the play for Reaves, even though he should have an expanded offensive role with Luka Doncic out. Reaves struggled against the Thunder in the regular season, scoring 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting in their first meeting, 16 points on 6-of-14 shooting in their second meeting and 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting in the game he hurt his oblique towards the end of the regular season.

There may be more shots for Reaves, but I can’t get behind him at this number against the No. 1 defense in the league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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