Rockets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alperen Sengun)

A trip to the NBA Cup Finals is one the line on Saturday night as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder battle to the Houston Rockets for the second time this season and first time in an NBA Cup setting.

This matchup is on a neutral floor in Las Vegas, but the Thunder come into it as favorites (they are considered the home team) after knocking off the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night in the quarterfinals.

When it comes to betting on this game, I’m not a huge fan of taking a side since both teams have done well against the spread in the 2024-25 campaign. Houston is 5-2 ATS as an underdog and OKC is 14-9 ATS as a favorite.

So, instead I’m looking to the prop market for a pair of bets to make between the two top teams in the West at this point in the season

Let’s break them down!

Best NBA Prop Bets for Rockets vs. Thunder

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+126)
Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+126)

SGA is now averaging 30.2 points per game, and he’s done it by taking the most 3-pointers of his career – and by a wide margin.

The MVP candidate took just 3.6 shots from deep per game last season, but that number has risen to 6.3 this season. He’s knocking down an average of 2.1 3s per game – good for a 34.0 percent clip – heading into this matchup with Houston.

Now, that isn’t a great percentage, but SGA has hit two or more shots from 3 in 15 of his 24 games this season. Not only that, but he made five 3-pointers against Dallas on Tuesday, and has three or more made shots from deep in five of his last eight games – including a 3-for-7 showing against Houston.

Over that eight-game stretch, SGA is shooting 34.4 percent from deep, but he’s taking 8.0 shots from there per game.

Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115)

Houston Rockets big man Alperen Sengun went off against Golden State on Wednesday, scoring 26 of the team’s 91 points while grabbing 11 rebounds. He also dished out five dimes and picked up three steals in the win.

So far this season, Sengun’s scoring is a little down compared to last season, but he’s averaging an impressive 10.6 rebounds per game. That’s where I plan on backing him in the prop market on Saturday,

Oklahoma City is a great defensive team, but it struggles on the glass, allowing 47.9 opponent rebounds per game (29th in the NBA) and it ranks 28th in the league in rebounding percentage.

Earlier this season, Sengun had 14 boards in a win over OKC, and he’s had 17 games (out of 25) with at least 10 boards. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop on Saturday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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