Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 3

The Houston Rockets have slipped out of the top four in the Western Conference, but they’re still within striking distance of the No. 2 seed entering Monday’s matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

These teams played three teams before the new year earlier this season, with the Thunder winning two of those matchups, including the most recent one on Dec. 14. However, OKC has a tough turnaround on Monday, as this is the second night of a back-to-back.

On Sunday, the Thunder picked up a blowout win against the San Antonio Spurs behind a 41-point performance from Jalen Williams.

Houston is just 5-5 in its last 10 games, but it has gotten both Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet back in action, two huge pieces of the team's rotation. However, VanVleet was ruled out on Monday, just one game after he shot 1-for-8 and played 35 minutes for Houston.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch, and my prediction for the Thunder as they inch closer to 50 wins in the 2024-25 season.

Rockets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Rockets +9.5 (-105)
Thunder -9.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Rockets: +350
Thunder: -455

Total

228.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Rockets vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 3
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Rockets record: 37-23
Thunder record: 49-11

Rockets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Rockets Injury Report

Steven Adams – questionable
Dillon Brooks – questionable
N’Faly Dante – out
Tari Eason – questionable
Jack McVeigh – out
Amen Thompson – questionable
Alperen Sengun – questionable
Fred VanVleet – out
Cody Zeller – out

Thunder Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Rockets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Alperen Sengun UNDER 20.5 Points (-110)

This season, Sengun has failed to clear this prop in each of his games against the Thunder, scoring 11, 20, and 13 points.

Now, he’s questionable for Monday’s matchup, making him hard to trust in this prop. Sengun is averaging 19.1 points per game on 48.8 percent shooting from the field, but can he have a big game against Isaiah Hartenstein down low?

I’d rather fade the Houston big man in what may be a defensive battle.

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers (-135)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 36.9 percent from beyond the arc in the 2024-25 season, and he’s made at least three shots from deep in four of his last five games.

Overall, SGA is averaging 2.1 made 3s per game in the 2024-25 season, and he’s shooting an impressive 43.4 percent from 3, making over two per game since Feb. 1. He has at least two made 3s in two of his three matchups with Houston this season.

Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

While these are two of the best defenses in the NBA, there are two interesting trends that I’m looking at in this matchup:

Oklahoma City is 18-10-1 on the OVER as a home team this season.
Houston is 18-11 on the OVER as a road team this season.

Now, the Thunder are coming off a high-scoring affair against the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday and could end up in yet another track meet against a Houston team that is dealing with a bunch of injuries tonight.

Two of the first three meetings between these teams went over this total, and I expect it to happen again on Monday.

Pick: OVER 228.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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